Lead
Global diamond prices are unlikely to rebound quickly, and the market could take two to three years to recover, according to experts interviewed by TASS. The outlook reflects a collapse in demand for traditional small and medium-sized natural diamonds, driven by the rapid expansion of synthetic diamond production and weaker global jewelry demand.
Coverage Comparison
Reporting from TASS presents two contrasting viewpoints. One set of expert opinions highlights ongoing market weakness, citing De Beers' recent price cuts and oversupply. Another, from Russian diamond miner Alrosa, points to early signs of a turnaround, driven by rising prices for investment-grade stones and a gradual recovery in demand.
Key Claims
De Beers' decision to cut diamond prices amounts to a capitulation to market conditions, according to Egor Vershinin, an analyst at Finam. He said the company had historically kept official prices 5% to 50% above the secondary market, offering discounts to selected clients. The move is likely to put additional pressure on Alrosa by setting a benchmark for further price declines across the industry, as De Beers and Alrosa have historically moved in tandem.
Eduard Lysenker, partner at S+Consulting, attributed the price cut to a collapse in demand for traditional small and medium-sized diamonds, caused by rising production of synthetic stones, a crisis in India's diamond-cutting industry, and weakening global jewelry demand. He noted that lab-grown diamonds now account for about half of the engagement ring segment in the US, the world's largest diamond market, compared with less than 3% a few years ago. In the mass market, lab-grown stones are used in about one-third of jewelry, and the price gap has widened to fourfold.
Vershinin described the market as characterized by oversupply and weak demand, with De Beers having accumulated significant inventories. He added that Angola's increasing sales at market prices are adding further downward pressure. He said that while some forecasts point to a future shortage due to deposit depletion by 2030, that does not contradict the current picture of cyclical oversupply. Larger diamonds of two carats and above have shown the opposite trend since spring, with companies including Alrosa raising prices for larger stones amid shortages in that segment.
In contrast, Alrosa told TASS it sees early signs of a turnaround in the diamond market. The company cited rising prices for investment-grade stones—high-quality diamonds over two carats—and a gradual recovery in demand. Alrosa noted that diamond values have demonstrated significantly greater stability this year compared to the past two to three years. It also pointed to jewelry retail data indicating steady demand growth across key markets, including the US, India, and China, and projected a compound annual growth rate of 4-7% for the luxury goods market between 2026 and 2029, based on analysis from BCG and Altagamma.
Alrosa also highlighted depleting inventories among Indian midstream cutters and a substantial decline in global diamond mining volumes, factors it believes will underpin further recovery in demand and support rising prices for both polished and rough diamonds.