Egypt renews opposition to new Ethiopian dams
Egypt has renewed its opposition to new Ethiopian dams on the River Nile, with Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stating in an interview with Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV that "Egypt will not allow the construction of additional dams on the Nile." He stressed that Egypt has "the legitimate right to defend its interests and water security." The remarks, reported by Middle East Monitor, came in response to Ethiopian announcements about plans to build new dams, and mark the third similar Egyptian position in about two weeks.
A day earlier, on 16 August, the official Egyptian news agency quoted a senior Egyptian source as saying that statements attributed to Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy Habtamu Itefa regarding the construction of additional dams "reflect Addis Ababa's continued illusions that it can impose dominance over a shared international river." The source said this approach "is not recognised by international law, and Egypt will not allow it to be imposed as a fait accompli."
Background: the GERD dispute
The latest friction comes less than a year after Ethiopia formally inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in September 2025, as reported by the Jerusalem Post, which noted that Ethiopia plans to build three additional hydropower dams on the Blue Nile. Fundamental differences remain between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the GERD, with no binding agreement on its filling and operation. Egypt depends on the Nile for nearly all its freshwater, and the Blue Nile supplies approximately 85% of the water reaching the country.
Abbas Sharaki, Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University, described Ethiopia's statements as "provocative," according to Egypt Independent. He affirmed that Egypt does not oppose Ethiopia's right to development as long as projects do not infringe upon the rights of other countries, particularly concerning the waters of the Nile. "Ethiopia has the right to development, and Egypt has the right to life," Sharaki said, adding that any projects on international and shared rivers must be undertaken through consultation and coordination, leading to a legally binding agreement. Egypt itself has implemented water projects outside its borders, including the Julius Nyerere Dam project in Tanzania, he noted, without causing harm to neighboring countries.
Sharaki emphasized that the Nile is an international river, and any project built on its course or shared tributaries must adhere to international rules, laws, and agreements. Egypt's message, he said, is support for Ethiopian development but "no to imposing a fait accompli on the Nile River."
Regional dimensions and expert views
The Jerusalem Post article, drawing on interviews with experts on both sides, frames the dispute within a broader regional context. Dr. Walid Kazziha, a political scientist at the American University in Cairo, described the latest phase as "serious but still largely contained within diplomatic and legal channels." He said, "The Egyptian reaction is … limited to making statements [and] focusing on the legal violations that the Ethiopian action may involve under international law. There are no direct military tones to the Egyptian reaction." Kazziha described the confrontation as "a war of words," and suggested Egypt may eventually seek intervention from the Trump administration.
On 13 July, Abdelatty rejected reports of additional unilateral construction on the Blue Nile and said Egypt reserved "the right to legitimate self-defense in accordance with the rules of international law." An unnamed Egyptian official told the state-run Middle East News Agency on 16 August that Cairo had "several means at its disposal" and would not permit any country to control the river's flow to downstream states.
From the Ethiopian perspective, Dr. Gashaw Ayferam Endaylalu, a senior researcher at Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs, said Ethiopia considers development a sovereign right and an economic necessity. "From the Ethiopian perspective, Ethiopia has a sovereign right to utilize the water resource of the Nile," he said, adding that "Ethiopia has a legal right, a sovereign right, to utilize its water resource for development purposes." He described Cairo's reliance on historical and existing water rights as "not acceptable," noting that "Ethiopia has also historical and territorial claims connected to the Nile." Gashaw predicted no conventional war but possible proxy competition, and said conflict, competition, and cooperation will coexist in the Nile River Basin.
The dispute also unfolds against a backdrop of regional geopolitical maneuvering. The Jerusalem Post reports that Egypt signed a security agreement with Somalia in 2024 and sent military aid to Mogadishu, while Turkey mediated the Ethiopia-Somalia dispute, culminating in the Ankara Declaration on 11 December, which affirmed each other's sovereignty and agreed to negotiate Ethiopian commercial access to the sea. Diplomatic relations were restored in January 2025, and technical negotiations opened in February 2025. Gashaw described Egyptian strategy as "diplomatic and military encirclement," noting Egypt's expanded military cooperation with Eritrea and contracts to develop Djibouti's ports, as reported by The National. Israel formally recognized Somaliland in December 2025, and Gashaw described Israel and Turkey as increasingly important competitors in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Reuters reported on 14 February that the Saudi-UAE rivalry had spread across the Red Sea, with the UAE building influence across Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, while Saudi Arabia has aligned with Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar.
Legal frameworks and the Cooperative Framework Agreement
The Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement entered into force in October 2024 after six countries ratified it: Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, with South Sudan supplying the sixth ratification. The agreement sets out principles including equitable and reasonable water use, avoidance of significant harm, data exchange, notification of planned measures, and envisages a permanent Nile River Basin Commission. Egypt and Sudan did not ratify the agreement.
Against this legal backdrop, Ethiopian officials argue the country has the right to develop water resources originating within its territory, while Cairo maintains that new upstream projects should not proceed without prior notification and coordination. The Jerusalem Post notes that during Trump's first administration, negotiations with the US Treasury and World Bank produced a draft agreement that Egypt initialed in 2020, but Ethiopia did not sign it.