As Iran crisis drags on, fears of global food crisis grow

Lead

Nearly two months into the conflict that shut the Strait of Hormuz, economists and policymakers are increasingly concerned about the ripple effects on global food supplies. While food prices have not yet surged, the blockage has disrupted shipments of fertilizers and energy — key inputs for agriculture — and experts warn that the full impact could be felt later this year and into 2027.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) last week warned that a prolonged crisis in the strait could lead to a global food “catastrophe,” according to multiple reports. The UN body’s chief economist, Maximo Torero, said that while existing stocks are absorbing the shock for now, a sustained closure would translate into higher commodity and retail prices. “We are in an input crisis; we don’t want to make it a catastrophe,” David Laborde, director of FAO’s agrifood economics division, told Al Jazeera.

Coverage comparison

Coverage of the crisis has been consistent across outlets, though with different emphases. Al Jazeera’s reporting has focused on the impact on the Global South, highlighting that India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Egypt are among the countries most at risk. The Jerusalem Post, meanwhile, has underscored the disruption to fertilizer supplies and reported on potential mitigation efforts, including a proposal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reroute oil to bypass the strait.

Several sources agree that the war in the Middle East is the primary cause of the disruption. The FAO’s warnings have been widely cited, as have the travails of farmers from India to East Africa who are making planting decisions under conditions that did not exist 60 days ago.

Key claims

• Fertilizer prices jumped 20 to 30% in the first month of the conflict — reported by the Jerusalem Post and consistent with the FAO’s remarks that between 20 and 30% of fertilizer exports are not moving.
• Tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed by more than 90% — according to the Jerusalem Post, citing shipping data. The strait normally handles roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizers.
• War-risk insurance premiums for vessels near the Strait of Hormuz surged tenfold — as reported by the Jerusalem Post, citing Lloyd’s List. A tanker that previously paid about $48,000 for Gulf coverage now faces up to $1.2 million for a single seven-day transit.
• A prolonged disruption could result in a global food “catastrophe” — a warning issued by the FAO, as reported by multiple outlets. The FAO’s chief economist and agrifood economics director have both stressed the potential magnitude.
• Exports of 20 to 45 percent of key agrifood inputs rely on sea passage through the Strait of Hormuz — according to the FAO. The strait also carries about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas and around a third of seaborne crude oil.
• India moved quickly to front-load imports and diversify supply routes — a claim carried by the Jerusalem Post, though not independently verified by other outlets in this coverage.
• The World Food Programme said nearly 45 million more people could face acute food shortages — as reported by Al Jazeera, based on a WFP analysis from last month. The figure assumes the conflict continues into the middle of the year.
• Israel’s agricultural technology could help reduce exposure to imported inputs — a suggestion made in the Jerusalem Post’s reporting, though it remains an opinion rather than a verified fact.
• Netanyahu proposed rerouting oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz — reported by the Jerusalem Post, a plan that has not been confirmed by other sources in this set.

Perspectives

The FAO’s economists, Torero and Laborde, have been the most prominent voices in this story. They emphasize that current food stocks and a good harvest season have so far kept prices from rising, but that this resilience is limited. “Right now, we don’t have a food crisis because we have food availability,” Torero told Al Jazeera. “But this is now.”

Matin Qaim, executive director of the Center for Development Research at the University of Bonn, told Al Jazeera that poor people in Africa and Asia will be hurt the most because they spend a high share of their income on food. “Hunger and undernutrition will very likely rise,” he said.

Some reporting, particularly from the Jerusalem Post, points to potential silver linings. Israel’s agricultural technology sector could help reduce reliance on imported inputs, and a ceasefire announced on April 8 has raised hopes that the strait might reopen. However, as Laborde warned, even with a ceasefire, traffic could take weeks to normalize, and the real stop in supply may be felt in the days ahead.

France and Britain are leading talks this week to discuss establishing a multinational maritime transit mission, according to a person familiar with the issue who spoke to Reuters. Whether such efforts can prevent the FAO’s feared catastrophe remains an open question.