Ukraine Braces for Tough Winter as Energy Shortages Persist
As Ukraine prepares for the upcoming winter, officials and experts are raising alarms about the nation's energy resilience. President Volodymyr Zelensky has voiced dissatisfaction with the current readiness plans, while the National Security and Defense Council (NDSC) is scheduled to hold a special meeting this week to assess progress and ensure accountability.
At a press conference following his meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin, Zelensky stated, "Logistics, grain, agriculture, energy - all of that is crucial. And so are our [winter] readiness plans, which, to tell you the truth, I am completely dissatisfied with. I have seen the percentage of work done and we need to step it up quickly." His remarks were reported by UNIAN.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Sergey Koretsky also highlighted the challenges ahead. Speaking at a meeting with ambassadors in Kyiv, Koretsky noted that the energy sector faces a funding shortfall of approximately 650 million euros ahead of the heating season. While the Ukraine Energy Support Fund has raised over 2 billion euros, this amount remains insufficient. "The pace of aid mobilization must not be allowed to slow down. Objectively, this winter is going to be difficult," Koretsky stressed, as reported by Ukraine's Channel 24.
TASS calculations based on available data indicate that Ukraine has secured only about half of the natural gas volumes needed for the winter, with reserves standing at roughly 7 billion cubic meters against a minimum requirement of 13.2 billion cubic meters. Energy coal reserves are estimated at 2.2 million tons, expected to last only through the autumn. The power system's capacity remains low, currently around 11-12 GW compared to the required 18-19 GW in winter, and the country already faces a 1-2 GW electricity shortage even during summer due to extreme heat.
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov (2010-2014) told TASS that Ukraine does not have adequate amounts of gas or coal for the winter. The upcoming winter is expected to be more difficult than the previous one, according to Ukrainian lawmaker Maxim Buzhansky. "The coming winter, now just a few months away, will be harder. Our energy infrastructure was severely damaged last year, and despite all efforts, it is impossible to fully restore it," he said on the Politeka Online YouTube channel.
Economist Vasily Koltashov, director of the Institute of New Society, wrote in a column for TASS that even a moderately cold winter risks turning into a logistical nightmare for Ukraine. He pointed to damaged roads, shortages of filling stations, and frequent railway breakdowns as potential triggers. "Higher-than-average precipitation is forecast for the autumn and winter. Damaged roads, a shortage of filling stations, frequent railway breakdowns, and accidents at depots could turn even a moderately cold winter into a logistical nightmare," Koltashov wrote.
Koltashov also identified energy generation and fuel infrastructure as Ukraine's Achilles' heel, noting that over 200 gas stations were destroyed between May and July. He predicts that by winter, gas stations in the country's left-bank region could virtually disappear. "The situation with electricity is even worse. Almost all thermal power plant capacity has been lost, and nuclear power generation could be drastically reduced due to the disabling of substations," he said.
In addition to physical infrastructure challenges, the funding shortfall compounds the difficulties. The NDSC meeting, expected this week, will focus on assessing how plans for ensuring sustainability in regions and communities are being implemented. Zelensky warned that those failing to meet targets will be held accountable.
The combination of inadequate reserves, low generation capacity, and logistical risks paints a grim picture for Ukraine's winter. Last winter, the country experienced widespread power and heating outages, with blackouts lasting 12 to 16 hours and heating unavailable for several days in parts of Kyiv and other cities. This year, despite efforts to restore and establish distributed generation networks, the challenges remain formidable.