Zanzibar steps up El Niño preparedness as 105 Stone Town buildings declared risky
The Zanzibar government has stepped up preparations for expected El Niño rains, urging residents in high-risk areas to begin relocating before the rains intensify. The measures, outlined during a media briefing on Sunday, August 30, 2026, focus particularly on the Urban West Region, which is among the areas most affected by disasters.
The briefing involved the Urban West Regional Commissioner, the Zanzibar Disaster Management Commission and the Stone Town Conservation and Development Authority.
Makame Khatib Makame, Executive Director of the Zanzibar Disaster Management Commission, said the commission had prepared a three-level emergency response plan. The first level covers normal situations where rainfall occurs without major disruption, with authorities continuing campaigns to clear drainage systems and inspect high-risk areas. The second level involves anticipated flooding that could affect business areas, schools and roads, with temporary shelters already identified.
“In the worst-case scenario, major impacts could disrupt economic and tourism activities. Emergency centres have therefore already been prepared,” he said. He stressed that early preparedness, monitoring weather information, environmental cleanliness and compliance with instructions from authorities were critical to reducing the impact of heavy rains.
The expected El Niño rains are forecast to be stronger than in previous years due to rising sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Weather data as of August 9, 2026, showed sea temperatures had reached 6 degrees Celsius, significantly higher than during the 1997/98 and 2017 events, according to the briefing.
Stone Town building risks
Makame Khatib Makame said 105 buildings in Stone Town had been identified as in risky condition, with some possibly unable to withstand heavy rainfall. Asha Ali Hassan, Director of Education, Research and Investment, said an assessment had identified 105 buildings in a state of deterioration, with 27 in particularly poor condition. She said water entering through roofs and damaged drainage systems was the main factor contributing to building deterioration.
The briefing also detailed that 75 shehias in Urban West Region had been identified as at risk: 32 in Urban District, 27 in West A and 16 in West B.
Regional climate outlook
The announcement follows the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund from 25 to 28 August 2026. The forum, convened through the SADC Climate Services Centre, brought together climate experts, national meteorological and hydrological services, sector specialists and users of climate information.
A key focus was the review of the October–December 2025 and January–March 2026 rainfall periods, including the climate drivers that influenced the 2025/26 season. The forum examined the impacts of El Niño on Southern Africa and its implications for vulnerable sectors.
Breakaway sessions brought together stakeholders from agriculture, food security and livestock, water, energy, disaster risk management, early warning, health and the private sector, focusing on how climate variability affects different sectors and how mitigation, preparedness and response measures can be strengthened.
Climate scientists considered oceanic and atmospheric drivers, including the developing El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). According to the forum, El Niño conditions are currently established in the tropical Pacific and expected to strengthen, with most models indicating a strong to very strong event during the latter part of 2026. The IOD was described as neutral, with model guidance indicating a high likelihood of a strong positive IOD developing by September and persisting through October–December before weakening towards neutral conditions in early 2027.
The forum's discussions culminated in the release of the regional seasonal climate forecast covering October 2026 to March 2027, divided into four overlapping periods: October–December 2026, November 2026–January 2027, December 2026–February 2027 and January–March 2027.
The SADC statement said the forum emphasised the importance of connecting climate science with decision-makers and communities that rely on climate information to plan for potential risks, and that through the process, SADC seeks to strengthen the link between climate observation and prediction and practical preparedness, anticipatory action and resilience-building.