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World Bank Forecasts 31% Surge in Fertilizer Prices Amid Supply Disruptions

The World Bank projects a 31% rise in fertilizer prices in 2026, driven by a 60% surge in urea prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall commodity prices are expected to increase 16%, raising inflation and dampening growth, especially in developing economies.

By Tertius News AI Desk 1 outlet · 2 articles Version 1 Coverage Apr 28, 2026 Published Aug 13

Lead

The World Bank has issued a stark warning on global commodity markets, forecasting a 31% increase in fertilizer prices this year, according to its latest report on commodity market outlooks, as reported by TASS. The surge is attributed to a 60% jump in urea prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for fertilizer exports. The report also anticipates a broader 16% rise in commodity prices, a development that is expected to fuel inflation and slow economic growth worldwide.

Coverage Comparison

This story is covered exclusively by TASS, the Russian state news agency, which has published two separate articles highlighting different aspects of the World Bank report. The first article focuses on the fertilizer price surge and its causes, while the second examines the wider implications for commodity prices and the global economy, particularly in the context of the US-Israeli war against Iran. As only one outlet has reported on this, the information is drawn from a single source, and the framing may reflect TASS's editorial perspective, which often emphasizes the impact of Western-led conflicts on global markets.

Key Claims

According to the World Bank report, as detailed by TASS, fertilizer prices rose 12% in the first quarter of the year, with March 2026 prices reaching their highest levels since 2022. The bank attributes this increase primarily to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a significant rise in urea prices. The report projects a 60% surge in urea prices, which is expected to drive the 31% annual increase in fertilizer costs, reducing fertilizer affordability to its lowest since 2022 and threatening future harvests.

Beyond fertilizers, the World Bank expects a record 19% increase in prices for ferrous and non-ferrous metals in 2026, largely due to the US-Israeli military operation against Iran. Aluminum, copper, and tin are anticipated to hit record highs in 2026 before a gradual decline in 2027, though they will remain near unprecedented levels.

On a macroeconomic scale, TASS reports that the World Bank forecasts a 16% rise in overall commodity prices, driven by soaring energy and fertilizer costs and record-high metal prices. Rising commodity prices are expected to increase inflation and dampen growth worldwide. In developing economies, inflation is projected to average 5.1% in 2026, a full percentage point higher than pre-war expectations and up from 4.7% last year. Growth in these economies is expected to deteriorate, with a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points to 3.6% for 2026, as higher prices for essentials weigh on incomes and exports from the Middle East face sharp curbs.

The World Bank also highlights that 70% of commodity importers and over 60% of commodity exporters could see weaker growth than previously projected. The bank warns that commodity prices could rise even further if hostilities escalate or if supply disruptions from the war last longer than anticipated.

Perspectives

Impact on Farmers and Food Security: The surge in fertilizer prices is particularly concerning for agricultural productivity. The World Bank notes that reduced fertilizer affordability will lower farmers' incomes and put future harvests at risk, potentially exacerbating food insecurity in vulnerable regions.

Global Economic Outlook: The broader commodity price increase is expected to stoke inflation and slow growth, especially in developing economies that are more sensitive to food and energy costs. The downward revision in growth forecasts underscores the far-reaching economic consequences of the conflict.

Geopolitical Context: TASS frames these developments within the context of the US-Israeli war against Iran, suggesting that the conflict is a primary driver of market instability. This perspective may reflect a critical stance on Western foreign policy, though the underlying data comes from the World Bank's own analysis.

Caveats and Uncertainties: These projections are based on baseline assumptions, and the World Bank acknowledges that prices could rise even higher if the situation worsens. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key assumption, may be temporary, which could alter the trajectory. As of now, these findings are solely reported by TASS, and independent verification from other international outlets is limited.

How this outlet told it

A framing line is our reading of that outlet's own text — an interpretation, not a quotation and not a fact we assert. Check it against what the outlet published.

TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC

Framing: Our reading World Bank report on commodity market outlooks — Informative

Facts Included:

The World Bank expects fertilizer prices to increase by 31% this year
Fertilizer prices rose by 12% in the first quarter of the year
The increase in fertilizer prices was largely driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
The rise in fertilizer prices was primarily influenced by an increase in urea prices
Fertilizer prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026 due to a 60% surge in urea prices
The World Bank expects a record 19% increase in prices for ferrous and non-ferrous metals this year

Read the source article →

TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC

Framing: Our reading World Bank report on commodity prices and US-Israeli war — Analytical

Facts Included:

Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026
Rising commodity prices will increase inflation and dampen growth worldwide
In developing economies, inflation is now projected to average 5.1% in 2026
Growth in developing economies will deteriorate as higher prices for essentials weigh on incomes and exports
Commodity prices could rise even higher if hostilities escalate or supply disruptions from the war last longer than projected

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

AI-extracted; can misattribute a claim — see Methodology.

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimThe World Bank expects fertilizer prices to increase by 31% this year. Fertilizer prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026 due to a 60% surge in urea prices.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC
ClaimFertilizer prices rose by 12% in the first quarter of the year.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC
ClaimThe increase in fertilizer prices was largely driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC
ClaimThe rise in fertilizer prices was primarily influenced by an increase in urea prices.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC
ClaimThe World Bank expects a record 19% increase in prices for ferrous and non-ferrous metals this year.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC
ClaimOverall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimRising commodity prices will increase inflation and dampen growth worldwide.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimIn developing economies, inflation is now projected to average 5.1% in 2026.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimGrowth in developing economies will deteriorate as higher prices for essentials weigh on incomes and exports.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimCommodity prices could rise even higher if hostilities escalate or supply disruptions from the war last longer than projected.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 28, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

1 outlet · 2 articles consulted: TASS — English 10 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-13