Poll Indicates Vulnerability Without Netanyahu
According to a Maariv readers' poll published May 6, 2026, 70% of respondents believe Likud would receive fewer than 20 Knesset seats if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were not leading the party (Source 1, high confidence). The survey, explicitly noted as an open online readers' survey rather than a scientific representative sample, found 36.4% of respondents predicting Likud would win between 10 and 20 seats without Netanyahu, while 33.9% predicted the party would fall below 10 seats (Source 1, high confidence). Only 15.6% of respondents believed Likud could still win 30 or more seats without the longtime leader (Source 1, high confidence).
Divergent Views Across Political Spectrum
The poll revealed significant disagreement between coalition and opposition voters regarding Likud's viability. Among opposition voters, 42.4% predicted Likud would receive 10-20 seats without Netanyahu and 37.7% predicted fewer than 10 seats, with only 8.3% believing the party could reach 30 or more seats (Source 1, high confidence). Coalition voters displayed greater optimism: 28.5% predicted fewer than 10 seats, 28.2% predicted 10-20 seats, 17.5% predicted 20-30 seats, and 25.9% predicted 30 or more seats (Source 1, high confidence).
Netanyahu-Independent Scenarios
The survey also examined the reverse scenario—Netanyahu running without Likud. Approximately 33.4% of respondents predicted a Netanyahu-led independent party would win 10-20 seats, while 28.4% predicted fewer than 10 seats, and 20.4% believed such a party could reach 30 or more seats (Source 1, high confidence). Among opposition voters specifically, 41.5% predicted a Netanyahu-led party would win 10-20 seats (Source 1, high confidence).
The Maariv poll found 50.5% of respondents oppose granting Netanyahu any reserved slots on the Likud list, while 32.3% support ten slots and 17.2% support five slots (Source 1, high confidence).
Conflicting Accounts on Reserved Slots
Conflicting accounts have emerged regarding reports of internal debates over reserved positions on Likud's electoral list. According to a May 5, 2026 report by Channel 14, Netanyahu has firmly rejected compromises and insists on securing ten reserved spots on Likud's national list (Source 2, medium confidence). A senior Likud official, speaking anonymously, warned that the party is heading for a "political massacre on the list like never before," and suggested that if conditions are not met, Netanyahu may take "extreme measures," including potentially running at the head of an independent list (Source 2, medium confidence).
However, these claims were strongly denied by a Likud spokesperson, who characterized the reports as "complete fake news" and emphasized Netanyahu's commitment to the Likud party (Source 2, high confidence). The high-confidence denial stands in contrast to the medium-confidence allegations of internal brinkmanship.
Potential Implications of Reported Demands
If the reported demands were implemented, all Likud ministers and Knesset members would need to run on the national list, with nearly half expected to be pushed out of competitive positions (Source 2, medium confidence). According to the senior official who spoke to Channel 14, approximately 70% of Likud's current ministers and Knesset members will likely not be part of the next Knesset if this plan proceeds (Source 2, medium confidence).
Netanyahu's reported concern centers on the current Likud list's ability to drive voter enthusiasm, with fears of low turnout in party strongholds (Source 2, medium confidence). The prime minister reportedly plans to include prominent names from the October 7 aftermath, including families of victims and hostages, on the party list to bolster appeal (Source 2, medium confidence).
Historical Context and Party Structure
Historically, Likud operated with two reserved slots ahead of the 24th Knesset election and five reserved slots in the most recent election, where the party won 32 seats (Source 1, high confidence; Source 2, high confidence). Under the Extended Norwegian Law, one-third of ministers resigned to make room for additional Knesset members from the national list (Source 2, high confidence). The proposed ten reserved spots would be assigned without primary elections (Source 2, high confidence).
Strategic adviser Yossi Tatika predicted internal resistance to granting Netanyahu ten reserved slots, noting that longtime activists would not easily accept such a high number (Source 1, medium confidence). Tatika estimated that Likud's more than 140,000 members could influence more than 400,000 votes on election day (Source 1, medium confidence).