Poll Results Show Shifts in Israeli Political Landscape

A new opinion poll published by Israel’s Channel 12 on Monday evening indicated major shifts in the political landscape ahead of a possible election, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party remaining in first place with 24 Knesset seats, compared with 23 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Naftali Bennett’s B'Yachad party came third with 15 seats, followed by Yair Golan’s Democrats with 11 and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu with nine.

The poll also showed United Torah Judaism, led by Moshe Gafni, winning eight seats, the Otzma Yehudit party led by Itamar Ben-Gvir eight, the Joint List led by Yousef Jabareen seven, and Shas seven. The new People of Israel party, led by former Israeli military officer Ofer Winter, made a notable breakthrough, winning four seats. The United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, also won four seats. By contrast, the Religious Zionism Party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, failed to cross the electoral threshold after receiving 2.6 per cent of the vote. The same percentage was recorded by the Zionist Home for Reservists Party, led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel. The poll also showed Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu when voters were asked who was more suitable to serve as prime minister.

Kan Poll Shows Crossings and Bloc Shifts

A separate Kan election poll published Sunday shows Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party crossing the electoral threshold, gaining support at the expense of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit. The poll, Kan’s first since the reestablishment of the Joint List, showed the Joint List overtaking Otzma Yehudit in projected Knesset seats. According to the survey, Likud fell by one seat compared to Kan’s previous poll, dropping to 21 seats, and has lost three seats since the beginning of the month. Otzma Yehudit also declined, falling to seven seats.

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Naftali Bennett’s Together party remained stable, with 24 and 21 seats respectively. Within the opposition bloc, Yair Golan’s Democrats party and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu each lost one seat, falling to nine and eight seats respectively. The bloc breakdown showed the opposition bloc declining from 57 seats to 55, while the coalition bloc rose slightly from 51 seats to 52. The Arab parties increased their projected representation to 13 seats.

Leadership Suitability and Merger Scenarios

Netanyahu continues to hold a slight lead over Bennett on suitability to serve as prime minister, with 37% choosing Netanyahu compared to 36% for Bennett. However, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu on the same question, ‍40% to ‍37%. The Kan News poll also examined possible right-wing mergers. A merger between Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir, which is supported by 57% of coalition voters, would actually weaken their combined support to 10 seats, compared to ‍12 seats if they ran separately. In that scenario, Winter’s party would rise to five seats. If Smotrich were to unite with Moshe Feiglin’s party, Religious Zionism would rise to seven seats, tying with Otzma Yehudit, at Winter’s expense. In all scenarios, Benny Gantz, Gilad Erdan, and Matan Kahana’s parties fail to pass the electoral threshold.

Reactions from Party Leaders

Netanyahu urged Smotrich and Ben-Gvir to merge, saying: 'There is about a week to allow for a merger. It is very possible that everyone can.' Winter rejected Netanyahu’s claims, saying 'What endangers the right-wing camp and the entire people of Israel are kites from Gaza.'