Mobilization Rumors Divide Russian and Ukrainian Officials

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Russian authorities are planning to "expand mobilization" in autumn this year, citing intelligence services. According to Zelenskyy, Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to recruit additional soldiers to continue the war against Ukraine, concealing his intention "behind different words and signals." He added that Russia's army is losing more fighters at the front than it can recruit and that Putin wants to intensify attacks and expand the war, urging Ukraine's partners to exert pressure on Russia so that peace, rather than further mobilization, prevails.

Russian officials, however, have categorically denied such plans. Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the State Duma's Defense Committee, dismissed the rumors as a "drug-induced fever dream," attributing Zelenskyy's statements to "possible misuse of some substances over the weekend." He reiterated that contract service remains the main recruitment method for the Russian armed forces, so there is no need for mobilization. Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov had previously stated in March that a new wave of mobilization was not planned and that there was "no such topic on the agenda." He later refused to comment specifically on Zelenskyy's remarks.

Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev also echoed the denial, framing the rumors as part of a foreign propaganda campaign aimed at destabilizing Russia ahead of elections. Speaking at a meeting of a Security Council commission on contracting servicemen, Medvedev said the enemy was "seek[ing] to destabilize the situation in our country, create negative moods" through social media posts and "pseudo-campaigning" encouraging enlistment "without waiting" for the draft, which he called "a contracted story. Or a story fabricated by the enemy." He drew attention to the matter for presidential envoys, regional heads, and the defense ministry. Medvedev also claimed that in the first half of 2026, about 200,000 people had enlisted in the Russian army.

The dispute is set against the backdrop of a partial mobilization decree issued in autumn 2022, which the presidential administration confirmed in 2023 remains in effect. That announcement triggered an exodus of Russians abroad, according to reports.

Independent Russian exile media outlet Verstka and Latvia-based Russian-language news portal Vaschnyje Istorii published an investigative report in late June suggesting that Russia's leadership was secretly discussing mobilization due to difficulties in recruiting new conscripts. The outlets cited figures from Moscow's mayoral office showing the city sent 1,708 people to the front in April and 1,378 in May — around 1,000 fewer than the same period last year, with the low rate continuing in June. Vaschnyje Istorii also reported that the recruitment rate for soldiers on fixed-term contracts more than halved in the last quarter of the previous year. Military personnel interviewed by Verstka said contract soldiers sent to fight this year were unfit for combat, with many new arrivals fleeing the front lines, and one conscript said units were staffed at only 30 to 40% capacity.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a fresh mobilization drive, according to the same reporting. Verstka also noted that demand for Armenian rental apartments has surged, with rents in Yerevan rising by about 30% in recent months, which it attributed to Russian interest.

Military expert Yan Matveyev, as cited in the reports, believes the current recruitment rate is insufficient for Russia to secure a military victory over Ukraine.

Perspectives

Ukrainian perspective: President Zelenskyy, citing intelligence, asserts that Russia plans to expand mobilization in autumn, that the army is losing more troops than it can recruit, and that Putin seeks to intensify the war. He urges international pressure to pursue peace.

Russian official perspective: Russian officials, including Kartapolov, Peskov, and Medvedev, deny mobilization plans, calling the rumors enemy propaganda aimed at destabilizing Russia before elections. They maintain that contract enlistment is sufficient and that Zelenskyy's claims are baseless or even delusional.

Independent media and expert perspective: Reports by Verstka and Vaschnyje Istorii, along with the ISW, suggest recruitment difficulties, low staffing levels, and signs of preparations for a new mobilization, while military expert Yan Matveyev argues current recruitment rates are inadequate for victory.