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Why there's more talk of an AUKUS 'plan B'

As concerns grow over potential delays and capability gaps in Australia's AUKUS submarine program, some analysts and defence figures are calling for contingency planning. Defence Minister Richard Marles has dismissed such calls, saying a 'plan B' would mean 'giving up' on new submarines. Budget documents reveal increased funding for the Australian Submarine Agency, while nuclear waste storage and UK shipbuilding challenges remain unresolved.

By Tertius News AI Desk 2 outlets · 3 articles Version 1 Coverage May 12–27, 2026 Published Aug 15

Lead

Growing concerns over a potential "capability gap" that could leave Australia without a submarine fleet are prompting some defence industry and policy figures to argue the country needs to think about an AUKUS "plan B". The federal government maintains that the AUKUS "optimal pathway" — which would see Australia acquire three American-built nuclear-powered submarines in the 2030s, and Australian-built AUKUS submarines from the 2040s — remains on track.

But some are urging the federal government to start considering contingencies. Concerns over plans to extend the life of the aging Collins-class submarine fleet, the pace of construction in American naval shipyards, and the complexity of designing and building an entirely new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines are prompting the warnings. In short, Australia needs to extend the life of an aging fleet of submarines by close to two decades.

Coverage comparison

Reporting on AUKUS has focused on both the government's reassurances and the challenges facing the ambitious project. ABC Australia has highlighted the complexity of the program, noting the concerns about the Collins-class life extension and the US submarine production rate. It has also reported Defence Minister Richard Marles' comments reassuring progress on AUKUS, while acknowledging the potential for delays and the involvement of the US and UK.

The Guardian — World has taken a more critical and investigative angle, focusing on the challenges and uncertainties surrounding the AUKUS project. It has reported on the budget increase for the Australian Submarine Agency, nuclear waste management concerns, the US submarine production rate, and the UK shipbuilding industry's potential delays. Its language has included terms like "contentious", "sclerotic", and "moribund" to describe various aspects of the program.

Key claims

Australia plans to acquire three American-built nuclear-powered submarines in the 2030s, and Australian-built AUKUS submarines from the 2040s. The US needs to double the production rate of its nuclear-powered submarine shipyards in a matter of years to meet its own needs and provide submarines to Australia.

The Australian government has committed to extending the life of the aging Collins-class submarine fleet, with an $11 billion "life of type" extension to ensure they can remain in the water into the 2040s. The budget for Australia's AUKUS deal has increased by more than $430m over four years, with the Australian Submarine Agency's resourcing for next financial year jumping by a third.

Australia has not identified a permanent storage site for the nuclear waste generated by its nuclear-powered submarine fleet, despite successive federal governments trying to establish a nuclear waste site for three decades. The UK's shipbuilding industry is facing challenges, including underinvestment and neglect, which may impact the delivery of the first AUKUS submarine, scheduled to be complete in the late 2030s.

The AUKUS project is estimated to cost Australia $368 billion over three decades, including about $4.6 billion to be given to each of the UK and US to boost their submarine-building rates.

Perspectives

Australian Government

Defence Minister Richard Marles has brushed off calls for a "plan B" in case AUKUS fails, saying it would be a step towards "giving up" on acquiring any new submarines at all. He told a defence conference that AUKUS was an "enormous task", but Australia had to "stick to the plan", saying "chopping and changing" once again would mean effectively giving up on the plan to develop a new fleet of long-range submarines. He noted that propositions to build submarines in Japan or France had been considered, and "AUKUS is kind of plan C". "If we're up to plan D then we're not really up to Plan D," he added.

Defence analysts and industry figures

Some analysts and defence industry figures are increasingly worried Australia could be left without any submarines in the future as the government grapples with its plan to extend the life of the aging Collins-class fleet while trying to maintain momentum on AUKUS. Many of those pushing possible contingencies see them as fallback options that could be relied upon if the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines is delayed, and provide a useful additional capability if everything goes to plan. They argue the risk that Australia could be left exposed, without a submarine fleet during a period of heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific, is too great for back-up plans not to be explored.

How each outlet told it

ABC Australia as of May 23, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC

Framing: Neutral/informative — Objective/informative

Facts Included:

AUKUS optimal pathway
Acquisition of three American-built nuclear-powered submarines
Australian-built AUKUS submarines from the 2040s
Concerns over Collins-class life extension and US submarine production rate
Potential for plan B or contingency planning

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ABC Australia as of May 27, 2026, 7:31 AM UTC

Framing: Neutral/informative — Objective/informative

Facts Included:

Defence Minister Richard Marles' comments on AUKUS progress
Concerns over potential delays and plan B options
US and UK involvement in AUKUS project

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The Guardian — World as of May 12, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC

Framing: Critical/investigative — Skeptical/concerned

Facts Included:

Budget increase for Australian Submarine Agency
Nuclear waste management concerns
US submarine production rate and potential impact on AUKUS
UK shipbuilding industry and potential delays

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimAustralia plans to acquire three American-built nuclear-powered submarines in the 2030s, and Australian-built AUKUS submarines from the 2040s.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from ABC Australia as of May 23, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim
ClaimThe US needs to double the production rate of its nuclear-powered submarine shipyards in a matter of years to meet its own needs and provide submarines to Australia.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from ABC Australia as of May 23, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim
ClaimThe Australian government has committed to extending the life of the aging Collins-class submarine fleet, with an $11 billion 'life of type' extension to ensure they can remain in the water into the 2040s.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via ABC Australia as of May 23, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC
ClaimThe budget for Australia's AUKUS deal has increased by more than $430m over four years, with the Australian Submarine Agency's resourcing for next financial year jumping by a third.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of May 12, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC
ClaimAustralia has not identified a permanent storage site for the nuclear waste generated by its nuclear-powered submarine fleet, despite successive federal governments trying to establish a nuclear waste site for three decades.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of May 12, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC
ClaimThe UK's shipbuilding industry is facing challenges, including underinvestment and neglect, which may impact the delivery of the first AUKUS submarine, scheduled to be complete in the late 2030s.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of May 12, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC
ClaimDefence Minister Richard Marles has brushed off calls for a 'plan B' in case AUKUS fails, saying it would be a step towards 'giving up' on acquiring any new submarines at all.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via ABC Australia as of May 27, 2026, 7:31 AM UTC
ClaimThe AUKUS project is estimated to cost Australia $368 billion over three decades, including about $4.6 billion to be given to each of the UK and US to boost their submarine-building rates.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from The Guardian — World as of May 12, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim

Transparency & Audit Trail

2 outlets · 3 articles consulted: ABC Australia, The Guardian — World 8 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-15