A fallen giant

For more than a decade and a half, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was the undisputed powerhouse of Nigerian politics. Founded in 1998, it appeared impregnable after the end of military rule the following year. Its chairman boasted in 2008 that the party would govern for six decades.

The PDP held the presidency for 16 years under Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan, and controlled the vast majority of the country’s 36 states. But a seismic defeat in 2015, when it lost the federal election to Muhammadu Buhari and the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), marked the beginning of a steep decline.

Now, as Nigeria’s January general election campaign gets underway this week, a question hangs over the party: can it survive?

A year of defections and decline

Political analyst Ishaq Buhari said the party struggled with opposition from the start, having grown accustomed to the trappings of federal power. “They were a party that was so used to power, being in opposition was a new challenge they struggled with from the start,” he told the BBC.

If 2015 was a major blow, 2025 was the year the party’s foundations were left in ruins. The year was marked by a dizzying wave of defections and bitter internal conflicts. At the start of 2025, the PDP still held eight states. By December, governors from Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Bayelsa, and Rivers had defected to the APC.

After losing the governorship in Oyo state last month, the party now holds no states at all, according to reports.

The defections were followed by the departure of former vice president and presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, who left the party in 2025.

A party at war with itself

The internal crisis deepened in November 2025 when a faction of the party held a national convention in Ibadan, despite court orders attempting to stop it. That convention expelled Nyesom Wike, a prominent party figure who serves in President Bola Tinubu’s APC-led government.

But Wike leads a rival faction that the law recognizes as the legitimate party, allowing it to submit candidates to the electoral commission. The split has left the party paralysed as it heads into the election campaign.

Hopes for revival

Not everyone has given up on the PDP. Aminu Adamu, a party member, expressed optimism, pointing to examples of political comebacks in other countries such as Thailand and Argentina.

Political analyst Deji Olarenwaju suggested a different path to survival: an alliance with the African Democratic Congress or Peter Obi’s Nigeria Democratic Congress could offer the PDP a way back into relevance.

Whether the party can rebuild in time for the January election, or whether its decades-long dominance has truly come to an end, remains to be seen.