Chinese exporters and shipping firms remain wary despite US-Iran peace deal
A preliminary accord between the United States and Iran has raised hopes for a easing of tensions in the Gulf, but Chinese exporters and shipping firms are holding back, wary of the deal's temporary nature and the lingering effects of sanctions, according to multiple reports.
The interim agreement, announced over the weekend, includes a 60-day ceasefire and a commitment by the US to lift its maritime blockade and issue waivers for Iranian oil exports. The deal also establishes a framework for negotiating a broader agreement that would address Iran's nuclear programme and the long-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy corridor.
The announcement triggered a sharp drop in global oil prices, with Brent crude falling more than 4% on Monday to a three-month low. However, analysts caution that the market's optimism may be premature.
Mixed signals for Chinese businesses
For Chinese firms that have been navigating sanctions related to Iran, the deal offers a glimmer of relief but not enough to prompt a rush back to normal operations, according to trade observers.
Abbas Shi, a Chinese businessman who has been connecting Chinese companies with Iranian partners since 2024, said the immediate focus is on clearing backlogs rather than pursuing new business. "The first thing everyone wants is to get all the cargo that's been sitting at sea or waiting to be shipped moving again," he said.
The sentiment reflects a broader caution among Chinese exporters and shipping companies, which have faced significant disruptions since the conflict began four months ago. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had sharply curtailed commercial shipping through one of the world's most important energy corridors, disrupting global supply chains and driving up transport costs.
While the reopening of the strait is a positive step, many companies are waiting to see whether the ceasefire holds and whether the US waivers are implemented in practice.
Analysts urge caution on sanctions relief
Despite the initial enthusiasm in financial markets, analysts point out that the deal is only preliminary and does not guarantee a full rollback of sanctions.
Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said that while new purchases of Iranian oil ostensibly would not be subject to fresh sanctions, she does not expect a quick lifting of existing restrictions. "I imagine we won't see a rush to lift existing sanctions on Chinese importers of Iranian oil," she said.
Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia and global trade lead at the Economist Intelligence Unit, echoed that sentiment, describing the optimism in commodities and financial markets as "strong" but cautioning against reading too much into the initial price movements. "There are reasons for optimism, but I still think we should be cautious about this now," he said.
The deal's 60-day timeframe adds to the uncertainty, as it remains unclear whether both sides will agree to extend the ceasefire and move toward a more comprehensive agreement.
Shipping industry watches closely
Shipping firms, which had rerouted vessels away from the Gulf during the blockade, are also adopting a wait-and-see approach. While the reopening of the strait could restore more direct routes, the potential for renewed hostilities keeps many operators from making long-term commitments.
The broader impact on Chinese trade remains to be seen. The country is a major importer of Iranian oil and has significant commercial interests in the region. The deal could ease some pressure on supply chains, but analysts warn that the underlying tensions between Washington and Tehran are far from resolved.
For now, Chinese exporters and shipping companies are taking a cautious stance, balancing the potential benefits of the ceasefire against the risks of a fragile peace.