Lead
Two months after the opening strikes of Iran's war with the United States and Israel, a simple question hangs over Tehran: who is actually in charge?
Formally, the answer is Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader within days of the elder Khamenei's killing on the first day of the conflict. But the new supreme leader has not been seen in public since taking power, and reports from multiple outlets paint a picture of a leadership in flux, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) playing an increasingly dominant role.
Coverage Comparison
Three major international outlets — ABC Australia, Al Jazeera, and the BBC — have all examined the question of Iranian decision-making, and while they converge on core facts, they differ in emphasis.
ABC Australia offers an interpretive analysis, suggesting the IRGC is "increasingly calling the shots" and that the regime has become more repressive, citing accounts from Iranians describing heightened security checks and arrests. Al Jazeera takes a more descriptive line, emphasizing that Iran's institutions "remain in place" despite the war, while noting the IRGC continues to lead military operations and that economic priorities have shifted toward procuring food and medicine. The BBC's analysis, framed as neutral, highlights the "murkier" reality behind the formal succession, quoting President Donald Trump's description of Iran's leadership as "fractured."
Key Claims
The Invisible Supreme Leader
Multiple sources report that Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public since his elevation. The BBC notes that beyond a handful of written statements — including one insisting the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — there is little evidence of his day-to-day control. Iranian officials have acknowledged he was injured in the initial strikes, and The New York Times, citing Iranian sources, reported that he may have suffered injuries to his face that make it difficult to speak, according to the BBC.
This absence matters because, as the BBC points out, authority in Iran's political system is not just institutional — it is also performative. The late supreme leader signaled intent through speeches and visible arbitration between factions; that function is now largely missing.</p>
The vacuum has led to open speculation. Some argue Mojtaba Khamenei's wartime elevation has not allowed him to establish authority on his own terms; others question whether he can actively manage the system given his reported injuries. Either way, decision-making appears less centralized than before the war, the BBC reports.
The IRGC's Ascendancy
Both ABC Australia and Al Jazeera report that the IRGC has taken the lead in military operations and wields significant economic power, particularly through control of Iran's natural resources. The Guard also maintains armed control on the streets through the Basij paramilitary and other forces, per Al Jazeera.
The new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, is described by Al Jazeera as part of the IRGC old guard, aligned with generals seen as unwilling to grant major concessions to Washington. The BBC similarly identifies the IRGC as holding "significant control over military operations and economic power."
ABC Australia goes further, quoting analysts and Iranians who say the Guard is "increasingly calling the shots." The regime, one Tehran resident told the ABC, "has grown much harsher" and is experiencing more "oppressive" security conditions than before the war.
A Fractured Leadership
President Trump has publicly described Iran's leadership as "fractured" and said the US is waiting for Tehran to produce a "unified proposal," according to the BBC. Analysts cited by ABC Australia see a power struggle between civilian leadership and hardliners, though outlets differ on how to characterize the balance.
Al Jazeera notes that no consensus has been reached in Tehran on granting concessions to the US, and that the IRGC's new appointments reflect a hardline orientation. The BBC reports that diplomatic channels remain open but only under certain conditions, though specific details are sparse.</p>
Economic Shift
Al Jazeera reports that the government's economic focus has shifted to prioritizing the procurement of food and medicine — a claim carried by that outlet but not yet confirmed by others. The report suggests the war has forced a reassessment of economic priorities, with essential goods taking precedence over other concerns.
Perspectives
On the IRGC's Role
Analysts writing in ABC Australia and Al Jazeera agree that the IRGC has emerged as the most powerful institution, but they differ on whether this represents a consolidation or an intensification of existing structures. ABC Australia emphasizes that the Guard's rise has coincided with increased oppression, citing civilian accounts of checkpoints and arrests. Al Jazeera, while noting the IRGC's hardline alignment, frames its role in more institutional terms, suggesting continuity in the Islamic Republic's security apparatus.</p>
On the Supreme Leader's Capacity
The BBC highlights the uncertainty around Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, while ABC Australia and Al Jazeera largely focus on the institutional dynamics that fill the vacuum. All three outlets caution that the new supreme leader's inability to perform his traditional public role may be reshaping the political system in ways that are not yet fully understood.</p>
On the Prospect of Negotiations
Al Jazeera's report that Tehran has not reached a consensus on concessions to the US reflects a hardline stance, while the BBC's mention of Trump's "fractured" comment suggests Washington is waiting for a more unified Iranian position. The divergence underscores that while formal channels may exist, the path to any agreement remains unclear.
This article was compiled from reporting by ABC Australia, Al Jazeera, and BBC World. Some claims, such as the economic shift toward food and medicine procurement, come from a single outlet and have not been independently verified by others at this time.