Who Really Runs Iran? Power Shifts as Trump Claims Talks with 'Top' Official
The question of who holds real authority in Iran has become central after President Donald Trump suggested that Tehran may be seeking a ceasefire. Speaking about the possibility of negotiations, Trump indicated that Iran's president might be reaching out, but analysts caution that the elected leadership does not control the country's most critical decisions.
According to a report from Fox News, Trump said, "Iran's New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!" However, he attached conditions, saying, "We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!"
Yet, experts argue that President Masoud Pezeshkian may not be the one making such calls. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital, "He clearly does not have the authority to turn on or turn off a major military conflict with the United States." Instead, real power lies with hardline figures within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including a newly prominent commander, Ahmad Vahidi, who has been linked to deadly attacks attributed to Iranian-backed networks abroad.
The IRGC: The Real Power Behind the State
Across intelligence assessments and recent reporting, one conclusion is consistent: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as the dominant force in Iran's political system. Ben Taleblu explained that the current moment is accelerating a long-standing trend. "No doubt both the 12-Day war and this current conflict have trimmed the commanding heights of the Islamic Republic's political and military leadership," he said. "But it has also expedited the trend lines inherent in Iranian politics, which is the dominance of the security forces and the ascendance of the IRGC."
The IRGC's influence extends beyond military matters. The Supreme National Security Council, which makes key decisions on war and peace, operates with the backing of IRGC commanders. According to the report, the council's decisions are effectively guided by the IRGC's leadership, making the elected government largely symbolic in matters of national security.
Key Figures in Iran's Power Structure
Several individuals are identified as holding significant sway in Iran's current landscape. Ahmad Vahidi, the interior minister, is a longtime IRGC commander whose reemergence highlights a broader shift. He has been linked to deadly attacks attributed to Iranian-backed networks abroad, including the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, according to the report.
Another figure is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliamentary speaker, who is seen as a potential interlocutor for the U.S. Ghalibaf has been involved in Iranian politics for decades and has ties to the IRGC. However, his role may be limited given the security forces' dominance.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is another name to watch. The State Department's Rewards for Justice program has offered up to $10 million for information on him, along with other key IRGC-linked leaders. The report notes that Mojtaba's role may be limited due to injury, but he remains a figure of interest.
A Fragmented but United Front
Despite the concentration of power within the IRGC, the report suggests that Iran's leadership remains united on one objective: regime survival. The ongoing conflict, whatever its immediate causes, has accelerated the IRGC's ascendancy, and all factions within the system are focused on preserving the Islamic Republic.
However, this unity does not translate into a clear chain of command for negotiations. As Trump himself said, "Nobody knows who to talk to," describing the situation as both chaos and opportunity. The U.S. claims to be in talks with a "top" Iranian figure, but Tehran publicly denies that negotiations are taking place.
Implications for U.S.-Iran Relations
The uncertainty over who holds power in Iran complicates any potential diplomatic efforts. If the IRGC controls all major decisions, then any deal reached with the elected government may not be honored. Conversely, engaging directly with IRGC figures would legitimize their dominance and undercut the official government.
The report emphasizes that the IRGC's control over the state has grown, and this trend is likely to continue. The question for Washington is whether to engage with the IRGC or stick to official channels, knowing that the latter may have limited authority.
Conclusion
As the situation evolves, the international community is watching closely. The IRGC's dominance is not a new development, but the current conflict has accelerated it. With key figures like Vahidi and Ghalibaf in positions of influence, and the IRGC controlling the security apparatus, the path to any ceasefire or diplomatic resolution remains unclear.
What is clear is that President Trump's assertion that Iran's president is seeking a ceasefire may not reflect the reality on the ground. The power to make such decisions rests with those who control the levers of war and peace—and that is the IRGC.