When the next heatwave could hit North East as Met Office issues weather update

Late-summer heatwaves possible, but north-south split expected

The Met Office has indicated that further hot spells could arrive before summer ends, despite the North East seeing more typical British weather this week. In its long-range forecast covering September 2 to September 16, the agency said “late season hot spells or heatwaves” could develop, particularly in the south. It also predicted “unsettled” conditions initially, with a possible “northwest-southeast split” in weather patterns.

According to the Met Office, the north and northwest of the UK will probably see the most rain and any strong winds, while the south and southeast will likely enjoy the driest and sunniest weather. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above average overall, with a chance of heatwaves mainly in southern areas.

The UK has already experienced five heatwaves this year, which have led to drought conditions and wildfires in some regions. The North East has escaped the worst of these conditions compared to areas further south.

BBC Weather forecasters suggest that high pressure could build across continental Europe in September, potentially pushing warmer air towards the UK. However, they expect drier conditions in the south and wetter conditions in the north, especially Scotland. For the North East, temperatures are likely to remain in the high teens.

El Niño could bring wetter, stormier winter

While September might still bring some warmth, the longer-term outlook points to a shift. The ongoing “Super El Niño” – triggered by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific – is expected to influence UK weather later in the year.

An El Niño is typically declared when sea surface temperatures exceed a jump of 0.5°C above average. This year, temperatures could exceed 3°C, making it one of the strongest events on record, according to the Met Office.

Professor Emily Black, a meteorologist at the University of Reading, explained that El Niño tends to increase the likelihood of mild, wet and windy conditions during autumn and early winter in the UK, followed by colder conditions later in the season. However, she stressed that even a very strong El Niño does not determine the UK’s winter and autumn weather outright; instead, it changes the probabilities of particular weather patterns.

Climate scientists call these cross-continental connections “teleconnections” – weather patterns linked across thousands of miles, as described by NOAA. El Niño is one of the most significant drivers of such teleconnections, meaning a warmer ocean surface can influence rainfall in the UK months later.

The Met Office’s Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting, described the current El Niño as an “unprecedented event” that will “far exceed” the UK’s recent experience of El Niño. He noted that a typical El Niño leads to temperature increases of 1–2°C in the Pacific, but this year’s could far exceed that.

Outlook

For the North East, the immediate outlook remains mild and showery, with the possibility of some warm spells in September. But the longer-range signals point to a wetter and stormier winter ahead, as the effects of the strong El Niño unfold.