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More than five months into the US war with Iran, President Donald Trump has signalled a shift from military force to economic pressure, according to Al Jazeera. The move comes as the US struggles to find a way out of a conflict that has not brought Iran closer to surrender, and as global economic consequences mount from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Coverage comparison

Al Jazeera’s reporting highlights two intertwined narratives: the US administration’s evolving strategy and the military and economic constraints shaping it. The outlet notes that recurring threats by Trump to launch a massive military campaign have not caused Iran to submit, while the US faces political pressure to end the conflict stemming from diminished weapons stocks, falling approval ratings ahead of the midterms, and a looming global economic crisis tied to commodity shortages from the closed strait.

A second Al Jazeera piece focuses on Trump’s recent signals that he would rather rely on squeezing Tehran’s economy than return to a military offensive. The report quotes Trump telling the news website Axios that the US is “low-keying” its approach, after previously giving Iran “one last chance” to make a deal or suffer catastrophic strikes.

Key claims

  • The US has maintained a naval blockade against Iranian ports since mid-April, which has reduced Iran’s oil exports and added to its economic woes, according to Al Jazeera.
  • The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for Middle East oil and refined products. Iran has closed the strait in response to US and Israeli attacks, and the US military is unable to open the passage and keep it open, the outlet reports.
  • Trump has threatened “apocalyptic carnage” on Iran, but has since cancelled planned attacks and reverted to economic tactics, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Iran’s new hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leadership believes the US and Israel seek to eliminate the Islamic Republic, the report states.
  • The US is running low on munition stockpiles due to fighting in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the Pentagon has asked the US defence industry to rapidly escalate the production and delivery of weapons, Al Jazeera reports.
Al Jazeera also reports that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted by Iranian forces, and while Iran and Oman have said they are close to reaching an agreement on the management of the strait, Trump said the US is “only semi-negotiating” with Iran. Tehran has denied direct talks with Washington.

Trump credited the blockade with increasing pressure on Iran, saying the country is in “very bad shape” financially, with high inflation and difficulty paying its own soldiers. He also claimed that falling oil prices, trading at about $78 a barrel on Monday, have eased the economic impact on US consumers of the war and the closure of the strait, which had sent prices above $100 a barrel for a time. “It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game,” he said.

Al Jazeera’s analysis suggests that the US administration’s priority is no longer getting Iran to capitulate on its nuclear programme but getting the strait open as soon as possible. However, the outlet reports that Iran has decided operational control of the strait is essential, and the US faces a difficult path in reversing that.