What to watch in the Alaska and Wyoming primary elections

Voters in Alaska and Wyoming head to the polls on Tuesday in primary elections that could send ripples beyond their small electorates. While both states have long been reliable Republican territory in federal elections, Alaska's unique electoral system and Wyoming's wholesale turnover of Republican leadership make these races worth watching ahead of November's midterms.

Alaska's Nonpartisan Primary and Ranked-Choice Voting

Alaska stands out for its electoral system, which differs from most other states. As reported by Al Jazeera and Newsweek, Alaska uses a nonpartisan top-four primary, where all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party, and the top four vote-getters advance to the general election. In the general election, voters rank the four candidates; if no one secures an outright majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their voters' second choices are redistributed until a winner emerges.

This system, approved by voters through Ballot Measure 2 in 2020, effectively eliminated traditional party primaries for most offices. The primary itself is not ranked-choice; voters select a single candidate.

The Governor's Race: A Crowded Field and a Rare Democratic Opportunity

Seventeen candidates are running to replace Alaska's governor, Mike Dunleavy, who is barred by term limits from seeking a third term. The field includes independent Bill Walker, a former Republican who served as governor from 2014 to 2018, as well as a mix of Democratic and Republican contenders.

As of Wednesday morning, with about 80 percent of the vote counted, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and former state Senator Tom Begich, both Democrats, had advanced to the general election, according to the Associated Press, as reported by Newsweek. Kreiss-Tomkins led the field with 21.7 percent of the vote, while Begich's support stood at 20.1 percent. Businesswoman Bernadette Wilson trailed at 10.5 percent, followed by former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson at 8.4 percent, former Attorney General Treg Taylor at 7.5 percent, and former state Senator Click Bishop at 7.1 percent.

Walker, who ran in the primary, trailed badly with just 4.4 percent of the vote with 80 percent reporting.

The overall vote totals show Republicans performing strongly in the primary: Republican candidates collectively received 66,743 votes, while Democrats received 54,479, according to the AP. Still, Democrats see an opportunity. Alaska last elected a Democratic governor in 1998, when voters reelected Tony Knowles. In 2014, the state chose Walker, an independent and former Republican, as governor.

Polling adds a layer of uncertainty. An Alaska Survey Research poll showed that in a final round of ranked-choice voting between Begich and Wilson, Begich held a 2-point lead, 51 percent to 49 percent. An earlier poll from the same firm showed Begich leading Wilson 53.9 percent to 46.1 percent.

Prediction markets have taken note. On Kalshi, Democrats' chances of winning the governor's race stood at 56 percent on Wednesday, up recently. On Polymarket, Kreiss-Tomkins had a 27 percent chance, Begich 26 percent, Wilson 22 percent, Bronson 5 percent, Taylor 4 percent, and Bishop 2 percent.

Despite these signals, forecasters remain cautious. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the governor's race as Likely Republican, as reported by Newsweek.

The Senate Race: Sullivan vs. Peltola and a Confusing Ballot

Alaska's Senate race carries the clearest national stakes, as it could tip control of the chamber. Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan faces a challenge from Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola, in a contest widely viewed as one of the most competitive of the midterms.

The race has drawn substantial outside spending. Super PACs have spent more than $2 million trying to boost non-serious candidates in the Senate race, according to Alaska Public Media, as cited by Al Jazeera. The Republican Senate Leadership Fund committed at least $15 million to Sullivan's campaign. AIPAC helped funnel about $250,000 in individual contributions to Sullivan in the first quarter of 2026, according to Al Jazeera.

Sullivan's campaign has also emphasized foreign policy, particularly his strong support for Israel and opposition to International Criminal Court prosecution of Israeli officials, as well as his backing of sanctions on Iran. Peltola has championed Israel-related legislation and sometimes broke with Democrats on Israel votes. The Jewish Democratic Council of America endorsed Peltola's Senate campaign in March, as reported by Al Jazeera.

An Alaska Survey Research poll conducted in March found Peltola ahead of Sullivan among primary voters, 46.4 percent to 40.9 percent.

Adding to the race's complexity, two Republicans named Dan Sullivan appeared on the ballot. The Alaska Supreme Court ordered the challenger, Dan J. Sullivan Jr., restored to the ballot. Senator Sullivan appeared as "Dan S. Sullivan" with "Registered Republican" and "Incumbent" labels, while the challenger appeared as "Daniel J. Sullivan Jr." with no party affiliation listed, although he filed as a Republican, as reported by Al Jazeera.

Wyoming: Open Seats and a Consolidation of Conservative Politics

Wyoming offers a different kind of contest: a rare wholesale turnover of Republican leadership. With no incumbent on the ballot in several key races, the primaries will help determine the direction of a state that has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964, except 1976.

In the Senate primary, Harriet Hageman is the favorite to succeed retiring Cynthia Lummis. Other Republicans in the race include Sam Mead and Jimmy Skovgard.

Nine candidates compete for the Republican nomination for Wyoming's US House seat, including Jillian Balow, Bo Biteman, Steve Friess, Reid Rasner, and Chuck Gray, as reported by Al Jazeera.

These contests could further consolidate the state's ultraconservative politics or begin to push them toward the center, depending on the outcomes.

Looking Ahead

With polls closing Tuesday evening in both states, the results will offer an early read on voters' direction heading into November. In Alaska, the ranked-choice general election adds an extra layer of unpredictability, while in Wyoming, the primary winners will set the stage for what is likely to be a heavily Republican general election.