Iceland votes on resuming EU membership talks

Iceland will hold a national referendum on August 29 asking voters whether the country should resume negotiations to join the European Union, a process that has been dormant for more than a decade. The question on the ballot paper is: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?”

The vote was approved by Iceland's parliament, Althingi, on May 28. It is legally advisory, although the government has said it will follow the result. The official referendum information website says negotiations would aim to produce an accession treaty, and if a deal is reached, the government has promised a second referendum on whether voters approve that agreement. Parliament and the foreign minister would also have to approve the treaty, and constitutional changes would be required before Iceland could join the EU.

A “no” vote would prevent negotiations from restarting, although it would not legally rule out another attempt in the future. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir has said the first vote is about giving the government a mandate to negotiate. “The nation will have the first word in this and it will have the last word in this,” she told parliament in May.

Background: A long and interrupted path

Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 after the country's banking sector collapsed during the 2008 global financial crisis. Accession talks were conducted from 2009 to 2013 before being suspended when a centre-right government came to power. The application was never formally withdrawn. In 2015, the then-government told Brussels it had no intention of resuming talks and that Iceland was no longer to be regarded as a candidate country.

The current coalition government, elected in 2024, included a commitment in its coalition agreement to hold a referendum on resuming accession talks before 2027. The December 2024 coalition platform called for a vote on the issue no later than that year.

How Iceland relates to Europe now

Iceland is already closely linked to the EU without being a member. It is part of the European Economic Area, which gives it access to the EU's single market, and it is in the Schengen free-travel zone. It retains its own currency and remains outside the EU's political institutions. This existing relationship is why the referendum asks specifically about restarting negotiations rather than about immediate membership.

The country is also a member of NATO, and its population is about 400,000.

Sovereignty and fisheries: Core of the debate

For both sides of the debate, the central issue is sovereignty, said Hulda Thorisdottir, a political science professor at the University of Iceland. Opponents argue that Iceland, which gained independence from Denmark in 1944, already enjoys many benefits of European integration without surrendering control. “The independence of Iceland is the most precious resource that we have,” said Haraldur Olafsson, a physics professor and chairman of Heimssýn, a Euroskeptic group that opposes EU membership.

A key sticking point is fisheries. Fish and marine products account for around 40% of Iceland's exports, and there is concern that joining the EU would mean accepting the Common Fisheries Policy, which could allow Spanish, Dutch, and other trawlers into Icelandic waters. Iceland fought the so-called Cod Wars with Britain in the 1970s to win control of its fishing grounds.

Foreign and Defence Minister Thorgerdur Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, who supports EU membership, said she is confident any deal with the EU would include an exemption for Iceland's fisheries. “We are a superpower when it comes to fisheries,” she said. “We will not sign any agreement which will not underline our sovereignty and full control of our fisheries.”

Heiðrun Lind Marteinsdóttir, CEO of Fisheries Iceland, said the seafood trade organization does not oppose joining the EU if there is a permanent opt-out from the fisheries policy, but she said that would be unprecedented. “I think we need to be very realistic on the negotiation process and what we can get out of the negotiations,” she said. “To be honest, I think, we're aiming high.”

Einar Sigurdsson, chairman of the fishing company Isfelag, predicted, “We are going to see European fishing vessels here in Iceland” if the country joins.

Trump's Greenland remarks add geopolitical urgency

The timing of the vote has been linked to geopolitical shifts. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in taking over Greenland, at times mistakenly calling it Iceland. He made the mistake four times earlier this year, according to reports. The US State Department reassured Icelandic officials that Trump meant Greenland during his slip of the tongue at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Gunnarsdóttir said.

William Long, the newly arrived US ambassador in Reykjavik, once joked that Iceland would become the 52nd US state and he would be its governor. He later apologized, but the remark prompted thousands of Icelanders to sign a petition urging the prime minister to reject his appointment.

Gunnarsdóttir said Trump's sabre-rattling emphasized the importance of the EU's collection of small and large nations standing as one with Greenland and Denmark. “We can't really trust the US anymore,” said Hildur Knútsdóttir, a horror fiction writer who plans to vote in favor of EU membership. “Trump was not joking about Greenland. There was a lot of fear here in Iceland because if he takes Greenland with force, we're probably going to be next.”

However, according to Euronews, the decision to hold the referendum was made before these geopolitical shifts, and the campaign remains largely focused on economic issues.

What happens next if Iceland votes 'yes'

A “yes” vote would not mean Iceland joins the EU immediately. It would jump-start negotiations with Brussels, which could take years. The European Commission would assess 35 sets of criteria covering areas from financial systems to fisheries, transport, agriculture, and fundamental freedoms. Iceland has already closed 11 of the 33 chapters that make up the accession talks, according to Euronews.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Iceland would be a frontrunner in the process. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos wrote on Bluesky that “Accession negotiations always reflect the specific realities of each candidate country.”

Any final agreement would need to be approved by all current EU member nations and then by Icelandic voters in a second referendum.

What if Iceland votes 'no'

A “no” vote would be a setback for the EU's expansion drive, according to Euronews. It would also suggest that the prospect of EU membership remains insufficiently attractive to wealthier northern states, especially as some Nordic countries are seeking to reduce Brussels' budget. Iceland has framed the vote as pivotal, meaning a “no” vote could silence the debate for years or even decades, and it would close off a strategic opportunity for the EU to expand its positioning in the North Atlantic and Arctic. It would also raise questions about how Reykjavik could use current frameworks to deepen cooperation with the EU on security and defence.

Polls indicate a close contest

Opinion polls suggest the outcome is uncertain. A July poll by Maskína put support for “Yes” at 53% and “No” at 47%, while a Gallup poll found 46% in favor, 46% against, and 8% undecided.

The vote is being watched closely across Europe, but EU officials have been careful not to appear to interfere in Iceland's democratic decision.