A hard-fought victory

State Senator Aisha Wahab has won the special election to fill the remainder of former U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell's term in California's 14th Congressional District, defeating fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez. US media outlets projected the outcome on Thursday. Hernandez, a BART board member, conceded the race but will face Wahab again in November for the full two-year term that begins in January.

The victory makes Wahab, who is Afghan American, the first member of her community to serve in the U.S. Congress. In a statement, she said: "I will fight for this district that raised me," adding that her victory shows her district "cannot be bought." She also said: "From foster care to Congress, this journey shows the possibility of the American Dream."

The special election was triggered by Swalwell's resignation in April following allegations of sexual assault, which he denied. Swalwell had spent more than a decade in Congress before mounting a run for California governor earlier this year.

The race, once low-key, became a costly and combative contest, drawing a flood of outside spending that Wahab said she overcame.

A proxy fight over the party's direction

The race transformed into a proxy fight for the soul of the Democratic Party, as Wahab, a progressive, and Hernandez, a moderate, squared off under California's "jungle primary" system. The two advanced from a June primary with roughly 38% and 17% support, respectively, under the state's rules that send the top two candidates to a runoff if neither exceeds 50%.

Much of the tension centered on outside money. Super PACs, including some affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), spent millions on advertisements to defeat Wahab and boost Hernandez. According to Federal Election Commission records, the United Democracy Project, an AIPAC-affiliated group, spent $1.2 million in August to support Hernandez and oppose Wahab. Another outside group spent $1.7 million on the race. CNN reported that BOLD America, a group that receives funding from AIPAC, spent $1.9 million. In total, outside groups spent about $4.1 million since mid-July, with roughly $3.7 million benefiting Hernandez and just under $400,000 benefiting Wahab.

Wahab, who is the first Muslim woman elected to California's state Senate, has been outspoken on Gaza. She called out Israel's "genocidal war" there and pushed legislation condemning alleged human rights abuses against Palestinians and captives held by Hamas. At a candidate forum in April, she answered "yes" when asked whether she believed what was happening to Palestinians constituted a genocide. Hernandez did not give a direct answer, saying that while Israel had a right to defend itself, the destruction in Gaza had gone "too far."

Last year, Wahab co-authored a state resolution denouncing the "horrific humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza" and calling for an end to the war. According to an Associated Press poll released in July, roughly a third of US adults believed Israel had committed genocide in Gaza, a position backed by United Nations experts and rights groups. Support for Israel has dropped "precipitously" amid the war, a factor that some observers said has made the district a test of the pro-Israel lobby's influence.

Allegations of interference

Wahab said she plans to file a complaint with the Federal Election Commission over what she called unprecedented election interference on social media by outside groups. At a news conference, she said: "What we are seeing is a surge of suspicious accounts, bot-like activity, and very much coordinated to say the same vile, misleading narratives."

Semafor reported that a supporter of Hernandez's campaign filed a separate FEC complaint against Wahab, alleging she received an illegal and unreported in-kind contribution from a local Democratic party. Wahab told Semafor the complaint was deliberately misrepresenting the party's support for her.

Hernandez's campaign also attacked Wahab for her legislative record on criminal penalties. One advertisement made misleading claims that Wahab had weakened laws against the sex trafficking of minors. Wahab released her own video emphasizing that she had made it "illegal and a felony to traffic or solicit minors, across the board," calling the advertising "$5m of lies."

Looking ahead

Wahab received the California Democratic Party's endorsement, and progressive Representative Ro Khanna congratulated her on X, saying: "Congratulations Aisha Wahab on your decisive victory. I look forward to working with you on Medicare for All, a living wage, and ending the war in Iran."

The race also highlighted the impact of outside spending in Democratic primaries this year. Progressive candidates, including Michigan Senate hopeful Abdul El-Sayed, have overcome heavy spending from pro-Israel groups to advance to November's general election, suggesting the strategy has a mixed record.

The boundaries of the 14th District were redrawn as part of a new congressional map approved by voters in a 2025 statewide ballot measure known as Proposition 50. That plan, which was placed on the ballot in response to mid-decade redistricting efforts led by President Donald Trump in Republican-controlled states, created a map more favorable to Democrats overall but made no dramatic changes to the 14th District. The Proposition 50 map takes effect for the full-term seat in January; the special election winner serves under the current boundaries for the remainder of the year.

In November, Wahab and Hernandez will face off again for the full term, with Wahab's victory serving as a signal of the district's priorities and the influence of outside money in California elections.