What Talarico, Paxton are saying about each other in the Texas Senate race now that it's a toss up

A New Kind of Fight

The Texas Senate race has tightened into a genuine toss-up, with both campaigns moving from the primary battlefield to an increasingly personal general election contest. The Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, and the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls from June 3 to August 10 shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by 1.2 points, 46% to 44.8%.

A Texas Politics Project poll conducted Aug. 5–13 among 1,200 registered voters puts Talarico's lead at 42% to 39%, with Libertarian candidate Ted Brown at 3% and 14% undecided. That poll also found Democrats reporting more enthusiasm than Republicans: 87% of Democrats said they were at least somewhat enthusiastic about voting, with 50% extremely enthusiastic, compared to 48% in 2022. On the Republican side, 84% are at least somewhat enthusiastic, but only 39% are extremely enthusiastic, down from 52% in the last midterm.

The Candidates' Messaging Battle

Both campaigns have turned to sharp attacks as the race tightens. Paxton posted on X urging supporters to "defeat Socialist James Talarico and SAVE Texas." His new ad accuses Talarico of being willing to "sacrifice children at the altar of the trans movement" and calls him "too weird and too radical for Texas." Paxton has also criticized Talarico for voting against a bill to keep men out of women's sports, and has accused him of trying to end the state's oil and gas industry, an industry Paxton says generates $385 billion into the state's economy.

Talarico has been spending millions on TV ads, including one featuring his grandfather, and is using social media to highlight Paxton's personal finances and a 14-year-old courthouse incident. He has cited a report showing Paxton owns 15 homes worth $9 million while on a $153,000 government salary, and has highlighted a video of Paxton taking a $1,000 pen from a Collin County courthouse; Paxton returned the pen and said it was a mistake. Paxton, meanwhile, has not been airing TV ads, but has said that will change once he raises more money.

Texas Woman's University political science professor Parker Hevron said Talarico's ads are trying to signal to Texans "I am one of you" and to counter Paxton's narrative that Talarico is not a masculine Texas candidate. Hevron also noted that Talarico's social media ads target Paxton's documented corruption and tie it to populist economic policies.

The Cost of the Race

The race has already drawn national attention, and Sen. Ted Cruz predicted it will be a "$200 million" fight, saying on "CBS Mornings": "I think we're going to win this race, but it is a real fight." Cruz said he will campaign with Paxton and boost him with super PAC funding, acknowledging that Paxton is "a little bit bruised" from an intraparty primary.

The GOP primary between Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn was the most expensive in history, and put Senate GOP leaders at odds with President Trump, who endorsed Paxton. Paxton won the runoff in late May, defeating Cornyn, who has served Texas since 2002. Talarico faced a primary challenge from Rep. Jasmine Crockett but avoided a runoff.

National Stakes

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Republicans currently control 53 seats, so Democrats would need to flip four seats to take the majority. The race is expected to be among the most expensive in the country.

Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian who calls himself a progressive Christian, has drawn criticism from Republicans for previous comments on veganism and gender. Cruz earlier called him "absolutely extreme" and claimed his record is "really extreme," adding that when voters hear it, they won't support him. "He who would be a great candidate in California," Cruz said, "but not in Texas."

Perspectives

• Paxton campaign: Portrays Talarico as a socialist extremist out of step with Texas values, attacks him on gender issues, and casts him as radical on energy.

• Talarico campaign: Casts Paxton as a corrupt official out of touch with working Texans, charges him with profiting from office and highlights a past incident to counter character attacks.

• Ted Cruz: Projects confidence that Republicans will win, framing the race as a "real fight" and planning to boost Paxton with super PAC funding while pointing to extreme Talarico's record.

• Voters: Texas Politics Project polling shows Democrats more highly enthusiastic than Republicans, and independent voters favoring Talarico by a sound margin among those who have made a decision, suggesting the race may hinge on a large undecided segment.