West Africa: Fragmented Security Allows Terrorists' Cross-Mobility Across Lake Chad and Sahel

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Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has resolved to send 100 fighters to reinforce Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) in Ménaka near Mali's border with Niger, according to defectors communicating with current fighters as reported by ISS Today. The decision, made at a recent meeting of ISWAP's Shura Council, underscores the cross-regional mobility of the two affiliates and poses a significant challenge to counter-terrorism operations in the Lake Chad Basin and Sahel regions.

The move comes months after ISSP retreated from the Ménaka area when Malian forces regained control. One defector quoted a fighter who attended the Shura Council meeting as saying, "They [ISSP] are having problems [in Ménaka]", indicating the group needed support.

Coverage Comparison

Reporting from AllAfrica, which carries analysis from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), highlights ISWAP's extending reach and the pressure it faces from US-Nigerian strikes. The report details how ISWAP is deploying fighters both to reinforce ISSP in the Sahel and to establish a presence in Nigeria's North Central region, far from its Lake Chad stronghold.

The analysis emphasizes that anti-insurgency structures in each region are not designed to match the cross-regional mobility of ISWAP and ISSP. ISSP operates mainly across the Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger border area, an area also active with the al-Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin. The report concludes that success in countering these groups will depend on cooperation between the governments of the Lake Chad Basin and Sahel regions.

Key Claims

• ISWAP has resolved to send 100 fighters to reinforce ISSP in Ménaka near Mali's border with Niger, as reported by defectors communicating with current fighters.
• ISSP operates mainly across the Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger border area.
• ISWAP is reportedly operating a sleeper cell in Nasarawa, which would operate like its Kogi cell in North Central Nigeria, responsible for a 2022 church attack in southwestern Nigeria and participation in the 2022 Abuja prison attack.
• Institute for Security Studies (ISS) field data shows ISSP fighters have crossed into North West's Sokoto and Kebbi states from southern Niger, complicating security in the Nigeria-Niger-Benin tri-border area.
• ISWAP helped ISSP deliver coordinated attacks on Niger's Diori Hamani International Airport and Air Base 101.
• ISWAP leader Habib Yusuf is reportedly dead.
• US-Nigerian strikes killed commander Bukar Mainok and around 200 fighters.
• ISWAP lowered its minimum recruitment age from 17 to 15.
• ISWAP lifted travel restrictions to its island strongholds for foreign jihadists.

These claims, as reported by AllAfrica's coverage of ISS analysis, illustrate an organisation both under pressure and extending its reach. The deployment of fighters to Ménaka and Nasarawa, alongside the lowering of the recruitment age and lifting of travel restrictions, suggests ISWAP is adapting its strategy in response to military pressure while seeking to expand its influence across the region.