Lead

As Keir Starmer's leadership faces increasing internal scrutiny, Health Secretary Wes Streeting — widely seen as a potential successor — confronts a significant obstacle: the party's grassroots largely favour other candidates. Recent polling and surveys suggest that if Labour members had a direct say, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would be the overwhelming choice to lead the party, while Streeting trails far behind.

Coverage comparison

Two separate reports from The Guardian — both drawing on distinct data sources — paint a consistent picture of Labour members' preferences. The first, based on a survey by the political organisation Compass, asked over 1,000 Labour members whom they would pick to succeed Starmer if given a free choice. Burnham led with 42%, while Streeting received just 11% — placing him roughly level with Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband, but with a significantly lower favourability rating.

The second report, citing YouGov polling, focused on the broader leadership landscape. That poll found that Labour members would rather have Burnham than Starmer as leader, by a margin of three to two, and that members believe the party is more likely to win the next election under Burnham than under Starmer. The same YouGov data showed that 66% of Labour members think Starmer has done a fairly good or very good job as prime minister, suggesting that dissatisfaction with the leader is not universal.

Notably, neither report suggests Streeting is a front-runner among the rank and file. Instead, they highlight a potential tension between the party's parliamentary wing — where Streeting is thought to be a prepared and viable candidate — and its broader membership, which appears more aligned with Burnham or Rayner on the political spectrum.

Key Claims

  • A Compass survey of more than 1,000 Labour members found that 42% would pick Andy Burnham to succeed Keir Starmer, while only 11% would pick Wes Streeting.
  • The same survey found Burnham had a 44% favourability rating among members, compared with 18% for Streeting.
  • Labour has lost over 200,000 members since Starmer became leader in 2020, according to the Compass-based report.
  • Many former members have either joined the Green Party or stopped belonging to any party, according to the same report.
  • YouGov polling found Labour members prefer Burnham over Starmer as leader, by a factor of three to two.
  • The YouGov poll also indicated that Labour members believe the party is likely to win the next election with Burnham as leader, but not with Starmer.
  • In the same YouGov data, 66% of Labour members said they think Starmer has done a fairly good or very good job as prime minister.
  • Angela Rayner recorded the highest favourability ratings among potential leadership candidates, according to the Compass survey.

Perspectives

Streeting's position: The Health Secretary is seen as a capable and potentially prime-ministerial figure within the parliamentary party, with connections to the Blairite tradition. However, the membership's strong preference for left-of-centre candidates like Burnham and Rayner poses a substantive challenge to any leadership bid he might make. The polling suggests his current level of support among the grassroots is limited, which could complicate any future leadership ambitions.

Membership's mood: The data indicates a membership that is more left-leaning than the parliamentary leadership. The significant loss of members since 2020, combined with a preference for Burnham over Starmer, suggests that the party's base is not fully aligned with the current leadership's direction — even as a majority approve of Starmer's job performance as prime minister.

Leadership context: The YouGov polling, while critical of Starmer among members, also shows a majority approving of his job performance as prime minister. This creates a nuanced picture: members may be dissatisfied with the party's electoral prospects under Starmer, but they do not broadly condemn his premiership. The gap between approval of his performance and confidence in his ability to win may fuel further leadership speculation, even if a formal challenge has not materialised.