Trump's Assertion of Control

US President Donald Trump has claimed that the United States has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz and suggested Washington intends to keep it. In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump wrote, "The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!" He also said Iran has "No Money - Their country is 'shot.' All they have is FAKE NEWS and 300% INFLATION, and getting worse!" adding, "Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East No Longer. Praise be to Allah! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

The president's remarks came amid a prolonged confrontation over the strait, one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, through which about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies passed before the war. Trump had also insisted on Tuesday that the strait was open for vessels to pass, despite Iranian claims that it was closed to ships without Tehran's approval, and despite the US naval blockade targeting Iran-linked vessels.

On Friday, Trump reiterated his position: "We have total control of that entire region having to do with the Strait of Hormuz." He also threatened to bomb Oman, a US ally, in an apparent bid to dissuade it from striking a deal with Tehran to jointly manage the strait.

The Numbers Behind the Rhetoric

The administration's claims of control are accompanied by figures from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who said the US military helped ship more than 15 million barrels of oil and other products out of the strait on Tuesday. The 7-day average is now more than eight million barrels a day, Wright said: "Make no mistake, thanks to the US Navy, oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz."

However, independent data paints a more measured picture. The UK Maritime Trade Organization reports that only 103 ships entered and 89 departed the waterway over the past week, with tankers making up around 45% of passages—compared with roughly 135 vessels a day before the war. Even if Wright's claims are accurate, the movement of oil remains less than half the pre-war average of 20 million barrels per day.

Analysts using satellite and ship-tracking data suggest 4-6 million barrels per day is more probable for oil leaving the strait, disputing Wright's higher estimates. The discrepancy highlights the difficulty of verifying traffic through a waterway where many vessels are turning off their transponders to avoid targeting.

How Ships Navigate a Fractured Strait

Since the war began, the strait has been divided into two main routes. The northern, Iranian route hugs Iran's coast near Larak and Qeshm islands, feeding into Iranian ports. The southern, Omani route, used by commercial carriers under US naval protection, is the one Washington insists upon.

According to data from Kpler, between August 1 and August 19, 112 vessels carrying crude, LPG, and LNG passed through the strait. Of those, 21 openly used the Iranian route, 2 formally used the Omani route, and 89 went dark or were unclassified. In total, 236 ships transited during that period: 83 openly used the Iranian route, 3 used the Omani route, 2 used the old pre-war route, and 148 went dark or unknown.

The practice of sailing "dark"—with transponders off—has become common. Energy policy researcher Marc Ayoub told Al Jazeera that some Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, have sent shipments through the Omani route with transponders off, using ship-to-ship transfers to evade detection. Iranian vessels are also using these methods to avoid sanctions and the blockade.

The situation remains dangerous. On August 8, the UAE accused Iran of attacking an ADNOC tanker with a missile as it tried to pass through the strait. ADNOC said that since the start of the war, 15 of its vessels had been attacked, killing one crew member and injuring 20 others, without blaming either side. On August 11, the US said a Navy helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at a Panama-flagged cargo vessel for attempting to break the blockade of Iranian ports.

Economic Pressures Mount

The conflict has taken a heavy toll on global energy markets. Brent crude stood at $94.39 per barrel in one report, while another put it at $92.9 per barrel on Thursday morning—up from about $66 before the conflict, which at its peak in March reached $119. Refining margins for turning crude into diesel hit a record $102.2 per barrel, compared with typical pre-war margins of about $19, and US refinery utilisation reached 97%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised to unveil the "toughest Iran sanctions in history," and Trump has threatened "tremendous economic consequences" for any country providing economic support to Iran. China, Iran's main trading partner and the only country still buying significant amounts of its oil, has responded by cutting back refinery runs and oil product exports, Bessent noted that "the Chinese get 50 per cent [of their] energy from inside the Gulf."

The UAE announced last Tuesday that it was suspending all trade and financial relations with Iran after detecting two missile launches towards its territory. Iran, meanwhile, has linked the reopening of the strait to demands including an end to the blockade and sanctions, as well as compensation for damage. The Iranian economy is under severe strain, with unemployment above 9% and inflation above 80%, and shipborne oil exports near zero.

The US military role is also seen as unsustainable. Analysts note that the US has expended a large part of its precision munitions and missile interceptors, and has sent its last remaining aircraft carrier from East Asia, the George Washington, to the Middle East, leaving it unprepared for any Chinese challenge. US national debt has raced above $40 trillion, the dollar has weakened, and 30-year Treasury yields reached 5.25% on Friday.

Perspectives

The Trump Administration

President Donald Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright assert that the US military has effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, enabling the flow of oil despite Iranian threats. They point to high daily throughput figures and the US Navy's protective role as evidence that the blockade and sanctions are working.

The Iranian Government

While Iranian officials have not been directly quoted in recent reports, their position, as relayed through various outlets, is that the strait remains closed to ships without Tehran's approval and that the US blockade and sanctions constitute aggression. Iran has linked any reopening to an end to the blockade and sanctions, and compensation for damages.

Independent Analysts and Data Providers

Ship-tracking data from Kpler and analyses by experts such as Marc Ayoub and Neil Quilliam suggest that traffic through the strait remains far below pre-war levels, with many vessels sailing dark to avoid targeting. They question the administration's throughput figures and note that Iran retains significant capacity to disrupt maritime traffic if it chooses.