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'We will keep it': Trump says US has total control over Hormuz, Iran has 'no money'
President Trump asserts the US has 'total control' of the Strait of Hormuz, pledging to keep it, while Iran is described as 'shot' with 'no money.' Yet independent tracking data and official counts suggest traffic remains far below pre-war levels, and analysts dispute the administration's figures.
US President Donald Trump has claimed that the United States has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz and suggested Washington intends to keep it. In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump wrote, "The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!" He also said Iran has "No Money - Their country is 'shot.' All they have is FAKE NEWS and 300% INFLATION, and getting worse!" adding, "Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East No Longer. Praise be to Allah! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
The president's remarks came amid a prolonged confrontation over the strait, one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, through which about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies passed before the war. Trump had also insisted on Tuesday that the strait was open for vessels to pass, despite Iranian claims that it was closed to ships without Tehran's approval, and despite the US naval blockade targeting Iran-linked vessels.
On Friday, Trump reiterated his position: "We have total control of that entire region having to do with the Strait of Hormuz." He also threatened to bomb Oman, a US ally, in an apparent bid to dissuade it from striking a deal with Tehran to jointly manage the strait.
The Numbers Behind the Rhetoric
The administration's claims of control are accompanied by figures from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who said the US military helped ship more than 15 million barrels of oil and other products out of the strait on Tuesday. The 7-day average is now more than eight million barrels a day, Wright said: "Make no mistake, thanks to the US Navy, oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz."
However, independent data paints a more measured picture. The UK Maritime Trade Organization reports that only 103 ships entered and 89 departed the waterway over the past week, with tankers making up around 45% of passages—compared with roughly 135 vessels a day before the war. Even if Wright's claims are accurate, the movement of oil remains less than half the pre-war average of 20 million barrels per day.
Analysts using satellite and ship-tracking data suggest 4-6 million barrels per day is more probable for oil leaving the strait, disputing Wright's higher estimates. The discrepancy highlights the difficulty of verifying traffic through a waterway where many vessels are turning off their transponders to avoid targeting.
How Ships Navigate a Fractured Strait
Since the war began, the strait has been divided into two main routes. The northern, Iranian route hugs Iran's coast near Larak and Qeshm islands, feeding into Iranian ports. The southern, Omani route, used by commercial carriers under US naval protection, is the one Washington insists upon.
According to data from Kpler, between August 1 and August 19, 112 vessels carrying crude, LPG, and LNG passed through the strait. Of those, 21 openly used the Iranian route, 2 formally used the Omani route, and 89 went dark or were unclassified. In total, 236 ships transited during that period: 83 openly used the Iranian route, 3 used the Omani route, 2 used the old pre-war route, and 148 went dark or unknown.
The practice of sailing "dark"—with transponders off—has become common. Energy policy researcher Marc Ayoub told Al Jazeera that some Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, have sent shipments through the Omani route with transponders off, using ship-to-ship transfers to evade detection. Iranian vessels are also using these methods to avoid sanctions and the blockade.
The situation remains dangerous. On August 8, the UAE accused Iran of attacking an ADNOC tanker with a missile as it tried to pass through the strait. ADNOC said that since the start of the war, 15 of its vessels had been attacked, killing one crew member and injuring 20 others, without blaming either side. On August 11, the US said a Navy helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at a Panama-flagged cargo vessel for attempting to break the blockade of Iranian ports.
Economic Pressures Mount
The conflict has taken a heavy toll on global energy markets. Brent crude stood at $94.39 per barrel in one report, while another put it at $92.9 per barrel on Thursday morning—up from about $66 before the conflict, which at its peak in March reached $119. Refining margins for turning crude into diesel hit a record $102.2 per barrel, compared with typical pre-war margins of about $19, and US refinery utilisation reached 97%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised to unveil the "toughest Iran sanctions in history," and Trump has threatened "tremendous economic consequences" for any country providing economic support to Iran. China, Iran's main trading partner and the only country still buying significant amounts of its oil, has responded by cutting back refinery runs and oil product exports, Bessent noted that "the Chinese get 50 per cent [of their] energy from inside the Gulf."
The UAE announced last Tuesday that it was suspending all trade and financial relations with Iran after detecting two missile launches towards its territory. Iran, meanwhile, has linked the reopening of the strait to demands including an end to the blockade and sanctions, as well as compensation for damage. The Iranian economy is under severe strain, with unemployment above 9% and inflation above 80%, and shipborne oil exports near zero.
The US military role is also seen as unsustainable. Analysts note that the US has expended a large part of its precision munitions and missile interceptors, and has sent its last remaining aircraft carrier from East Asia, the George Washington, to the Middle East, leaving it unprepared for any Chinese challenge. US national debt has raced above $40 trillion, the dollar has weakened, and 30-year Treasury yields reached 5.25% on Friday.
Perspectives
The Trump Administration
President Donald Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright assert that the US military has effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, enabling the flow of oil despite Iranian threats. They point to high daily throughput figures and the US Navy's protective role as evidence that the blockade and sanctions are working.
The Iranian Government
While Iranian officials have not been directly quoted in recent reports, their position, as relayed through various outlets, is that the strait remains closed to ships without Tehran's approval and that the US blockade and sanctions constitute aggression. Iran has linked any reopening to an end to the blockade and sanctions, and compensation for damages.
Independent Analysts and Data Providers
Ship-tracking data from Kpler and analyses by experts such as Marc Ayoub and Neil Quilliam suggest that traffic through the strait remains far below pre-war levels, with many vessels sailing dark to avoid targeting. They question the administration's throughput figures and note that Iran retains significant capacity to disrupt maritime traffic if it chooses.
How each outlet told it
Al Jazeera
Framing: Headline asks whether ships are more willing to defy Iran or the US, framing the story as a question of perception and behavior, without taking sides. — Analytical and data-driven, with a balanced tone that acknowledges uncertainty. Example: 'The conclusion: the fear of offending Tehran appears to outweigh Trump’s threats.'
Facts Included:
Trump claimed US military remains in control of traffic through Strait of Hormuz and suggested US might take charge of territory
Trump claimed strait was open despite Iranian insistence on approval and US naval blockade
Trump threatened to bomb Oman to dissuade it from striking deal with Tehran
Kpler data: 112 vessels carrying crude, LPG, LNG passed through strait between August 1-19; 21 openly used Iranian route, 2 formally used Omani route, 89 went dark/unclassified
Kpler data: 236 ships in all transited, 83 openly used Iranian route, 3 openly used Omani, 2 used pre-war route, 148 dark/unknown
Since war, two routes: northern Iranian (near Larak and Qeshm islands) and southern Omani; commercial carriers use Omani under US Naval protection
Vessels switch off transponders to evade targeting; experts quoted on safety concerns
On August 8, UAE accused Iran of attacking ADNOC tanker; ADNOC said 15 vessels attacked, one crew member killed, 20 injured, did not blame either side
US fired Hellfire missiles at Panama-flagged Vela Nova on August 11 for attempting to break blockade
Ship-to-ship transfers used by Gulf countries and Iranian vessels to evade sanctions and blockade; Marc Ayoub quoted
Experts (Ayoub, Quilliam) say Iran retains significant capacity to control maritime traffic
Strait significance: one-fifth of world's oil and LNG before war; 130 ships daily pre-war vs 236 over 19 days in August 2026
Iran closed strait in early March, allowed few ships, signed MoU with US on June 17; key issue in peace talks
Brent crude: about $66 before conflict, surged past $100, most recently July 23; in March high $119; fell after ceasefire and MoU; stood at $92.9 per barrel Thursday morning
Framing: Headline frames the conflict as a campaign by the Trump camp to break Iranian control of the strait, suggesting a power struggle, and includes 'Day 177' indicating ongoing war. — Skeptical and analytical, with a critical edge. Example: 'even if Wright’s claims are accurate, the movement of oil is still less than 1/2 the average of 20 million bpd before the war.'
Facts Included:
Monitored traffic through Strait restricted: 103 ships entered, 89 departed over past week, per UK Maritime Trade Organization
Tankers made up around 45% of passages
Pre-war daily traffic was around 135 vessels
Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed US military helped ship more than 15 million barrels on Tuesday; 7-day average more than eight million barrels a day
Wright quote: 'Make no mistake, thanks to the US Navy, oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.'
US officials say operations overseen by military command in North Carolina; ships move along Omani route
Trump said Friday: 'We have total control of that entire region having to do with the Strait of Hormuz.'
Movement of oil still less than 1/2 pre-war average of 20 million bpd
Brent at $94.39 per barrel, WTI at $87.06
Mention of 'US-Israel War on Iran' and June's Memorandum of Understanding
Significance: around 20% of maritime oil and gas passed before war
Framing: Headline frames the conflict as a deadly strategic game of Battleships, emphasizing uncertainty about who will win control of the strait, leaving out specific actors or political claims. — Analytical and measured, with a cautionary tone. Example: 'This is not a bloodless paper exercise. A more realistic situation report may help diplomacy, not the alternating maximalism from each side that has made peace so hard to find.'
Facts Included:
Iran would allow some tankers carrying Iraqi oil to cross the Strait of Hormuz, per President Nizar Amidi on Saturday
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 8 million barrels per day of oil were leaving the Strait, and had stated last week 9 million bpd; Axios reported the US Navy helping 10 million bpd
Analysts using satellites and ship-tracking suggest 4-6 million bpd is more probable
Liquefied petroleum gas vessels and refined products like fuel oil and naphtha are appearing in the shuttle trade
US military has expended a large part of its precision munitions and missile interceptors; aircraft carriers overstretched, sent George Washington from East Asia
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised 'toughest Iran sanctions in history' on Monday; Trump threatened 'tremendous economic consequences' for countries supporting Iran
China is Iran's main trading partner and only country buying significant amounts of its oil; Bessent said 'the Chinese get 50 per cent [of their] energy from inside the Gulf'
UAE announced last Tuesday suspending all trade and financial relations with Iran after detecting two missile launches
Iranian economy: unemployment more than 9%, inflation above 80%, shipborne oil exports near zero
Crude oil prices gained about 6% last week to more than $94 per barrel for Brent; refining margins record $102.2 per barrel, pre-war typical about $19
US utilisation rates 97% for refineries
China cut back refinery runs and oil product exports
US national debt above $40 trillion, dollar weakened, 30-year Treasury yields reached 5.25% on Friday
Suez Crisis analogy and 1953 coup in Iran
Mention of '12-Day War' against Iran and operation to remove Venezuela's President Maduro
Framing: Headline focuses on Trump's claim of total control and Iran having no money, emphasizing US power and Iranian weakness, omitting broader strategic context. — Straightforward reporting with a somewhat deferential tone to Trump's statements, using direct quotes. Example: 'Trump said the US naval blockade of Iranian ports had created what he described as a “WALL OF STEEL”' — no explicit editorial judgment.
Facts Included:
Donald Trump posted on Truth Social claiming US has 'total control' over Strait of Hormuz and suggested 'I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!'
Trump said Iran has 'No Money - Their country is 'shot.' All they have is FAKE NEWS and 300% INFLATION'
Trump added 'Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East No Longer. Praise be to Allah!'
US has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports while maintaining major military presence in Gulf
Iran linked reopening of strait to demands including end of blockade and sanctions, and compensation for damage
Indirect diplomatic contacts between US and Iran have continued
Attention turned to alternative routes including Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked a ship off Yemen killing six people, including three Pakistani nationals
Strait carries a significant share of global oil supplies and has faced severe disruption
Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.
Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimIran would allow some tankers carrying Iraqi oil to cross the Strait of Hormuz, according to President Nizar Amidi on Saturday.
ClaimUS Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 8 million barrels per day of oil were leaving the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to volumes flowing through bypass pipelines in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
ClaimUS Energy Secretary Chris Wright had stated last week that 9 million barrels per day were sent out of the Strait of Hormuz, while Axios reported on Wednesday that the US Navy was helping 10 million bpd to escape.
ClaimLiquefied petroleum gas vessels are joining the shuttle trade, and refined products such as fuel oil and naphtha are beginning to appear in the Strait of Hormuz.
ClaimThe US has sent the last remaining aircraft carrier from East Asia, the George Washington, to the Middle East, leaving it unprepared for any Chinese challenge.
ClaimThe UAE announced last Tuesday that it was suspending all trade and financial relations with Iran, after it detected two missile launches towards its territory.
ClaimThe situation is reminiscent of the 1956 Suez Crisis, when US economic threats forced indebted Britain and France to withdraw from Egypt and halt their efforts to overthrow Gamal Abdul Nasser.
ClaimDonald Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday claiming the US has 'total control' over the Strait of Hormuz and suggesting 'I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!'
ClaimIran linked the reopening of the strait to demands including an end to the blockade and sanctions, as well as compensation for damage caused during the conflict.
ClaimDonald Trump claimed the strait was open for vessels to pass through on Tuesday, despite Iranian insistence that it was closed for ships without Tehran's approval, and despite the US naval blockade.
ClaimOf those 236 ships, 83 openly used the Iranian route, 3 publicly used the Omani route, 2 used the old pre-war route, and 148 went dark or unknown.
ClaimSince the war, the Strait of Hormuz has two main routes: the northern Iranian route near Larak Island and Qeshm Island, and the southern Omani route.
ClaimADNOC said that since the beginning of the war, 15 of its vessels had been attacked by missiles and drones while transiting the strait, killing one crew member and injuring 20 others.
ClaimOn August 11, the US said a Navy helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panama-flagged Vela Nova cargo vessel for attempting to break the blockade of Iranian ports.
ClaimSome Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, have sent shipments through the Omani route with transponders off and using ship-to-ship transfers, according to energy policy researcher Marc Ayoub.
ClaimSome Iranian vessels are transiting through the Omani route with ship-to-ship transfers to avoid sanctions and the US blockade, according to Marc Ayoub.
ClaimBefore the war, one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies were shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and roughly 130 ships sailed through each day.
ClaimIran closed the strait in early March, allowing only a few ships it deemed 'friendly' to pass through, until it signed the MoU with the US on June 17.
ClaimThe price of Brent crude was about $66 a barrel just before the conflict began, surged past $100 on several occasions, most recently on July 23, rose as high as $119 in March, and stood at $92.9 per barrel on Thursday morning.
ClaimEnergy Secretary Chris Wright claimed the US military helped ship more than 15 million barrels of oil and other products out of the Strait on Tuesday.