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Canadians vote in three federal byelections as Liberals' majority hangs in balance
Canadians in three federal ridings cast ballots on Monday in byelections that could determine the fate of the Liberal minority government. The vote in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Beaches–East York, and North Vancouver–Capilano comes with the government two seats short of a majority.
By Tertius News AI Desk2 distinct · 2 mastheads · 2 articlesVersion 1Coverage Published
Voters in three federal ridings cast ballots on Monday in byelections that could determine the fate of the Liberal minority government. The votes in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, , Beaches–East York, , and North Vancouver–Capilano, , come with the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney two seats short of the 172 needed for a majority.
The governing Liberals currently hold 170 seats in the House of Commons, after a series of resignations in recent months, while the combined opposition has 166 seats. A majority would allow the Liberals to control the legislative agenda and hold onto power until 2029 without the risk of being toppled during confidence votes.
A key race in Quebec
The most closely watched contest is expected to be in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, where Conservative Richard Martel has held the seat since 2018 but stepped down last month after being appointed by Carney to the Senate. In the 2025 federal election, Martel narrowly won the riding with 67.7 per cent of the vote, with both the Bloc Québécois and Liberals following closely behind, each with 31 per cent — separated by only about 1,500 votes.
Daniel Gobeil is running for the Liberals, with Caroline Dubé representing the Bloc. The Conservatives have fielded Régis Gaudreault, the NDP's Raphaël Émond, and Nathe Perrone for the Green Party. A loss here would be "enormously problematic" for the Conservatives, former Conservative cabinet minister James Moore said, though he added that the race is anyone's game.
How each outlet told it
A framing line is our reading of that outlet's own text — an interpretation, not a quotation and not a fact we assert. Check it against what the outlet published.
Framing: The headline announces that voters are going to the polls for three federal byelections, emphasizing the act of voting rather than the political stakes. — neutral and factual
Facts Included:
Three federal byelections are held on Monday in North Vancouver–Capilano, Beaches–East York, and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord.
The Liberals have 170 seats and the opposition parties have a combined total of 166 seats.
The Liberals need two wins to guarantee control of the legislative agenda.
Richard Martel held Chicoutimi–Le Fjord since 2018 but stepped down after being appointed to the Senate.
Daniel Gobeil is the Liberal candidate and Caroline Dubé is the Bloc candidate in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord.
Other candidates in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord include Régis Gaudreault (Conservative), Raphaël Émond (NDP), and Nathe Perrone (Green).
In Beaches–East York, candidates seek to replace Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, who won by about 26,000 votes in 2025.
Candidates in Beaches–East York: Tanveer Shahnawaz (Liberal), Jim Syrbos (Conservative), Shannon Devine (NDP), Bruce Livesey (Green).
In North Vancouver–Capilano, candidates seek to replace Jonathan Wilkinson, who won by about 16,500 votes in 2025.
Wilkinson was a cabinet minister under Mark Carney and Justin Trudeau, vacating the seat in July after being appointed ambassador to the EU.
Candidates in North Vancouver–Capilano: Braeden Caley (Liberal), Stephen Curran (Conservative), Stephen Tweedale (NDP), Shelley Luce (Green).
CBC News coverage begins at 9:30 p.m. ET with Rosemary Barton and David Cochrane.
The prime minister has yet to call byelections in three other ridings.
Voters in three federal ridings are casting ballots in byelections today
The byelections in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Beaches–East York, Ont., and North Vancouver–Capilano are taking place amid an increasingly acrimonious trade war with the United States
MPs are set to return to the House of Commons in three weeks for the fall sitting
The governing Liberals currently hold 170 seats, after a series of resignations in recent months
They need 172 seats to keep their majority government
Prime Minister Mark Carney still has several other byelections to call, with four other seats still vacant and two other MPs expected to resign soon
According to Elections Canada, about 39,500 people have already voted in advance polls across the three ridings
The vote in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is to replace the seat vacated by Conservative Richard Martel, who was appointed by Carney to the Senate early last month
The Bloc and Liberals followed closely behind, each with 31 per cent of the vote, and only about 1,500 votes between them
In the running in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord are Conservative Régis Gaudreault, Liberal Daniel Gobeil, Bloc Caroline Dubé, NDP Raphaël Émond, and Green Nathe Perrone
Former Conservative cabinet minister James Moore said the race is anyone's game, it could be "enormously problematic" for the Conservatives if the seat flips to the Liberals
Beaches–East York is largely considered a Liberal stronghold
In Beaches–East York, now-former Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith resigned early last month after a failed run at the Ontario Liberal leadership
In the running in Beaches–East York are Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz, Conservative Jim Syrbos, NDP Shannon Devine, and Green Bruce Livesey
North Vancouver–Capilano has been held by the Liberals since 2015 and is widely expected to stay that way
Candidates in North Vancouver–Capilano are running to replace longtime Jonathan Wilkinson, who resigned after he was appointed ambassador to the European Union in the spring
Wilkinson said the decision was "not easy" and that he is taking on the role to "serve Canada"
Wilkinson was not named to Carney's cabinet
Running in North Vancouver–Capilano are Liberal Braeden Caley, Conservative Stephen Curran, NDP Stephen Tweedale, and Green Shelley Luce
AI-extracted; can misattribute a claim — see Methodology.
Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status is Contested when two claims on this page negate each other; otherwise it counts the distinct outlets we found asserting that specific claim — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.
Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimThe Liberals currently hold 170 seats in the House of Commons.
ConfidenceMedium
StatusMulti-source (2 outlets · 2 distinct) via CBC , CP24
ClaimThe opposition parties have a combined total of 166 seats in the House of Commons.
ClaimThe Bloc and Liberals followed closely behind the Conservatives in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, each with 31 per cent of the vote, and only about 1,500 votes between them.
ClaimIn the running in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord are Conservative Régis Gaudreault, Liberal Daniel Gobeil, Bloc Caroline Dubé, NDP Raphaël Beaulieu and Green Nathe Perron.
ClaimFormer Conservative cabinet minister James Moore said the race is anyone's game, and it could be "enormously problematic" for the Conservatives if the seat flips to the Liberals.
ClaimThe prime minister has yet to call byelections in Quebec ridings of Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot–Acton and Rosemont–La Petite–Patrie, and the Ontario riding of Scarborough North.