Investigation Points to US-Made Missile in Lamerd Strike
An analysis by the conflict monitor Airwars has concluded that a US-made Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) appears to have been used in a February 28 attack on the southern Iranian city of Lamerd, an attack that killed at least 21 civilians, including seven children, according to Iranian officials. Airwars based its findings on photographs, videos, and satellite imagery from the strike, documenting a pattern of damage extending up to about 170 metres from the apparent points of detonation. The organisation assessed that at least three PrSM missiles may have been used, with civilians killed as far as 50 metres from the impact sites.
The investigation focused on three apparent impact sites in Lamerd, including a sports complex and nearby residential areas. The distribution of damage—heavy pockmarking of buildings, streets, and vehicles—was deemed consistent with a weapon that disperses metal pellets over a wide area. Airwars also examined the area around an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compound nearby but found no corresponding damage at the compound, leaving the intended target of the attack unclear.
The Associated Press, which worked with Airwars on the review, verified the blast radius estimate by measuring distances based on Iranian media reports and videos.
US Military Denies Striking Lamerd
The US military has denied any involvement in the Lamerd attack. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in March that American forces did not launch strikes into Lamerd or within 30 miles of the city in February. CENTCOM also rejected the identification of the weapon shown in footage, suggesting the munition appeared more consistent with an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile than a PrSM.
Despite this denial, the US military has confirmed firing PrSMs into Iran as part of its broader operations. In a post to X on March 1, CENTCOM included an image that munitions experts identified as a PrSM being fired during the Iran operation, and three days later touted the use of PrSMs in Iran as a "historic first." A Central Command spokesperson reiterated that US forces did not launch weapons into Lamerd on February 28 and said they do not target civilians.
Six weapons experts, including two former military officials, told AP they believe PrSMs struck Lamerd and said it was unlikely that Israeli or Iranian weapons were used. The Israeli military told AP it did not strike in Lamerd, and experts noted Israel lacks missiles that detonate midair.
The Weapon's Design and Lethal Radius
The PrSM, developed by Lockheed Martin, is a long-range precision missile designed for launch from systems including HIMARS and the M270. It is designed to explode midair and propel tens of thousands of dense metal pellets—made of tungsten—at high speed in all directions. According to experts, the tungsten pellets retain their shape after detonation due to the metal's high density and melting point, making them extremely lethal and capable of piercing soft armor.
The missile's range exceeds 499 kilometres (310 miles), replacing the older ATACMS system, which had a range of about 300 kilometres.
Airwars mapped the damage radius in Lamerd, documenting that a blast over the Shahid Naimi Sports Hall damaged a school about 170 metres away, killing seven civilians, mostly children. Another blast over the Tal-e Khandagh neighborhood killed 2-year-old Avina Barzegar, with a pellet traveling 50 metres to her house.
Neither Airwars nor AP could find reports indicating that military or security personnel were killed in the strikes, or that military infrastructure was hit. This raises questions about the target selection in a densely populated area.
Expert Concerns and Official Oversight
Weapons experts and former defense officials expressed concern about the use of the PrSM in such environments. Michael Meier, a former US Army adviser on the laws of war, said, "You would be hard-pressed to find a reason to use the PrSM in a densely populated area." Wes Bryant, a former Pentagon adviser, said proper use should be reserved for large concentrations of enemy personnel with hard and soft armor. Trevor Ball, a former explosives expert, warned, "It will kill people outside their homes who aren't protected by walls."
The Pentagon has acknowledged investigating civilian casualties from its operations. Admiral Brad Cooper told Congress in May that the military was investigating only one case of US fire killing civilians—a strike on an Iranian school in Minab. The Lamerd strike does not appear to be among the cases under formal investigation, according to public statements.
Increased Production and International Interest
Since the Lamerd strikes, the Pentagon signed a contract worth over $4 billion with Lockheed Martin to quadruple PrSM production, as reported by AP. The UK said in June it had set aside 130 million pounds ($177 million) to procure the weapon, and Australia bought the missiles in 2025.
Lockheed Martin, which declined to respond to requests for comment, continues to develop longer-range variants. In June, the company said its proposed PrSM Increment 4 had completed a propulsion test and was progressing towards flight testing later in 2026. The ramjet-powered variant is designed to extend the missile's range beyond 1,000 kilometres.
The Lamerd findings have highlighted the potential consequences of using long-range weapons near populated areas, even as such weapons are increasingly adopted by allied militaries.