US poised to escalate tensions with Iran again - expert

Lead

Two international affairs experts have warned that the current pause in US-Iran tensions may be fragile, with the United States prepared for a new round of confrontation that could again disrupt global oil markets. The assessments come from Ivan Timofeyev, program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, and Jane Hardy, an Australian diplomat and foreign policy expert.

Coverage Comparison

Timofeyev, speaking at a Valdai Club panel discussion titled "War, Sanctions, Supply and Demand: Oil Markets After the Gulf Crisis," cautioned that the current calm between Washington and Tehran is likely a "remission" that could give way to a deeper crisis. Hardy, in comments to TASS, offered a more measured outlook, suggesting that a return to the status quo ante is possible within the next 60 days if an agreement is reached.

Both experts acknowledged the significant impact of recent events on global markets, though they differed in emphasis. Timofeyev focused on the potential for future disruption, while Hardy pointed to the partial recovery already underway following the start of negotiations.

Key Claims

Ivan Timofeyev, program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, said the United States is prepared for a new round of confrontation with Iran.

He observed that US-Iranian relations follow a "spiraling dynamic," with each remission followed by deeper deterioration than previous stages. Timofeyev noted that the previous remission under former President Joe Biden failed to restore agreements enshrined in UN Resolution 2231.

According to Timofeyev, an escalation could once again destabilize global oil markets, potentially causing "a recurrence of the recent disruptions in market access for Persian Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas." He also acknowledged that Iranian statehood had not collapsed and that Iran "stood its ground and must be reckoned with," though he stressed that a US retreat did not mean abandoning strategic plans.

Jane Hardy, an Australian diplomat and foreign policy expert, stated that the conflict between the US and Iran had not led to fundamental changes in the global strategic balance. She suggested that should an agreement be reached within 60 days, the situation could return to its prior condition.

Hardy reported that the ceasefire agreement had affected global energy markets and maritime trade routes, while the start of negotiations between Washington and Tehran had contributed to partial recovery. "The global crude oil price dropped before the US-Iran MOU was signed but is today slightly up again," she said.

She also warned that long-term consequences of the conflict could be more serious than its direct impact on the global economy or regional security. Hardy expressed concern that failure of US-Iran nuclear negotiations to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, or a perceived weakening of US extended deterrence, could undermine the nuclear non-proliferation architecture that allies have relied on since the early 1970s.

Perspectives

Ivan Timofeyev (Valdai International Discussion Club): Emphasizes US preparedness for renewed confrontation, warns of potential oil market destabilization, and describes US-Iran relations as spiraling toward deeper crises.

Jane Hardy (Australian diplomat and foreign policy expert): Offers cautious optimism about returning to status quo ante within 60 days, notes market recovery from negotiations, and warns of long-term risks to nuclear non-proliferation architecture.