US can only confirm about third of Iran's missile arsenal destroyed, sources say

The Limits of US Intelligence on Iran's Arsenal

Nearly one month into the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran, the United States can only confirm the destruction of about a third of Iran's missile arsenal, according to five sources familiar with US intelligence, as reported by Reuters on March 27. Four of those sources said the status of another third is less clear, but that bombing campaigns likely damaged, destroyed, or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers.

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, indicates that while most of Iran's missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still possesses a significant missile inventory and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once fighting stops.

This intelligence stands in contrast to US President Donald Trump's public remarks on Thursday that Iran had "very few rockets left." Trump also appeared to acknowledge the remaining threat from Iranian missiles and drones to any future US operations aimed at safeguarding the economically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters has reported that Trump is weighing whether to escalate the conflict by deploying US troops to Iranian shores along the Strait. "The problem with the straits is this: let's say we do a great job. We say we got 99% (of their missiles). 1% is unacceptable, because 1% is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars," Trump said at a televised Cabinet meeting on Thursday.

The Pentagon and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Coverage Discrepancies and New Details

A separate report from CNN, cited by the Jerusalem Post on April 3, adds further granularity, claiming that approximately half of Iran's missile launchers and one-way attack drones remain operational despite five weeks of heavy strikes. CNN's sources, reportedly reviewing recent US intelligence assessments, also indicated that a large percentage of Iran's cruise missiles—capable of threatening shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—are still intact.

The CNN report suggests that the count of operational launchers may include those currently inaccessible, such as those buried under rubble but not destroyed in the strikes. The intelligence information was relayed to CNN by sources familiar with the situation, according to the report.

While the Reuters figures focus on the overall missile stockpile, the CNN report highlights specific weapons systems, and the two accounts are not necessarily contradictory. However, the exact figures vary, and the discrepancy underscores the uncertainty surrounding the battlefield damage assessment, which is not unusual in an active conflict.

Key Claims

• Large portion of arsenal remains: Approximately half of Iran's missile launchers and one-way attack drones are still operational despite five weeks of strikes, according to a CNN report cited by the Jerusalem Post. A large percentage of Iran's cruise missiles are also still intact.
• Confirmed destruction: The US can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's missile arsenal, per five sources speaking to Reuters.
• Unclear status: The status of another third of the missiles is less clear, but bombings likely damaged, destroyed, or buried those missiles in tunnels and bunkers, according to four of the five sources.
• Recovery potential: Iran may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles after fighting stops, as noted by one source quoted by Reuters.
• Strike statistics: The US military has reportedly hit over 10,000 Iranian military targets and sunk 92% of the Iranian navy's large vessels, according to the Jerusalem Post report.
• Continued Iranian operations: Iran has demonstrated that it has not run out of weapons, firing 15 ballistic missiles at the United Arab Emirates, along with 11 drones, as reported by the Jerusalem Post. Iran has also displayed new capabilities, firing long-range missiles targeting the US-UK military base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

Perspectives on the War's Trajectory

Trump predicted on Tuesday that the US could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said on Tuesday that Israel has severely weakened the Iranian regime. However, sources cited in the CNN report, after reviewing the recent US intelligence assessment, determined that Trump's prediction was "wholly unrealistic," a characterization that suggests a significant gap between public pronouncements and the intelligence community's view.

"We can keep f**king them up, I don't doubt it, but you're out of your mind if you think this will be done in two weeks," one source told CNN. This blunt assessment, while anonymous, points to the possibility of a prolonged conflict, even as the US military has delivered a series of blows to the Iranian regime, according to the report.

Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, has been a public voice of caution regarding the conflict, though the Reuters article did not include his full remarks. The overall tone of the reporting suggests that while the US-Israel campaign has degraded Iran's military capabilities, the remaining arsenal and Iran's demonstrated ability to adapt could extend the conflict, with regional consequences continuing to spread.