U.S.-brokered peace efforts for Sudan encounter new obstacles

Lead

U.S.-brokered peace efforts for Sudan have encountered new obstacles after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rejected demands to withdraw from cities under their control, and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) insisted that any agreement must begin with the RSF's withdrawal, as reported by Africa News.

Mediators are working to revive talks for a proposed 90-day humanitarian truce led by U.S. Senior Advisor Massad Boulos, but disagreements between the SAF and the RSF continue to stall progress. The SAF is demanding a full RSF withdrawal, while the RSF says the conditions amount to surrender.

Coverage Comparison

Africa News reports that the SAF had consolidated control of the Export Road linking El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan State, with Khartoum, despite intensified drone attacks by the RSF, according to military sources. Mediators hope that a truce will create opportunities for aid deliveries and confidence-building measures. However, ongoing fighting across several fronts complicates the prospects for progress.

In a separate report, Africa News highlights the shifting battlefield dynamics. More than three years into Sudan's war, the SAF recovered Khartoum and consolidated its hold over much of the north, east and centre. Fighting shifted towards Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile, while drone attacks reached areas once considered secure. Khartoum illustrates the danger of confusing territorial recovery with political restoration: more than 2 million displaced people have returned, but electricity remains limited and public institutions struggle to function.

AllAfrica, in its analysis, emphasizes that diplomatic assumptions remain where they were in April 2023. Most initiatives approach Sudan as a two-sided conflict between a national army and a paramilitary rebellion, expecting Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, to bargain and deliver the forces behind them. That model no longer fits the war, according to the analysis.

Key Claims

Sudan's war began three years ago when the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces turned against the army, sparking a conflict that has killed more than 200,000 people by some estimates, as reported by Africa News. The Sudanese army now relies on a new coalition of militias to fight its battles, raising fears of repeating past cycles of violence. A 30-year-old Sudanese writer, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told Africa News: "We've seen this scenario over and over. It's the same old mistakes, and it's only a matter of time before they turn on each other."

Three of the most powerful militias in army-controlled territory are the Joint Forces, a coalition of former Darfuri rebel militias; the Sudan Shield Forces, which defected from the RSF; and the Baraa ibn Malek Brigade, an Iran-linked Islamist force. All have inflated their ranks since the war broke out in April 2023, and possess their own artillery, anti-aircraft missiles and killer drones, according to Africa News.

AllAfrica reports that the SAF and RSF leaderships do not fully embody the coalitions fighting in their names. Their camps contain armed movements, tribal formations, ideological brigades, local defence groups and commanders with their own constituencies and expectations of the postwar order. Battlefield coordination is not political unity, and a leader who can direct an offensive may still be unable to impose the sacrifices required by peace.

According to AllAfrica, the SAF camp includes Darfuri movements associated with Minni Minawi and Jibril Ibrahim, armed networks linked to the former regime, tribal forces, popular mobilisation formations and local defence groups. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies estimates that roughly 150 armed groups and militias operate across the conflict.

Perspectives

The SAF and RSF hold opposing positions on the terms of any truce. The SAF insists on a full RSF withdrawal as a precondition, while the RSF views such conditions as equivalent to surrender, as reported by Africa News.

Analysts quoted by Africa News offer differing assessments of the potential for a truce. Mohiedeen Mohamed said, "The military's recent gains in Kordofan have strengthened its position in the negotiations. They could also help civilians return to their homes and improve humanitarian access." In contrast, Abdolmoniem Abuidrees stated, "Recent fighting in Kordofan has reshaped the battlefield and prompted both sides to reinforce their positions. That shows neither is ready to make concessions, making a humanitarian truce unlikely to improve conditions on the ground."