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UN warns likelihood of ‘extreme weather events’ as El Nino set to intensify

The World Meteorological Organization warns that El Niño conditions, already underway, are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event between July and September, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. The UN agency has activated early warning systems to help governments prepare.

By Tertius News AI Desk 2 outlets · 2 articles Version 1 Coverage Jul 3, 2026 Published Aug 15

Lead

The United Nations' weather watchdog has warned governments and humanitarian organisations to brace for "extreme weather events" including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall due to the El Niño weather phenomenon. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday that El Niño conditions had already set in and are "forecast to strengthen rapidly" between July and September.

Coverage Comparison

Both Al Jazeera and Dawn reported the WMO's warning, highlighting the rapid development of El Niño into a strong event. Al Jazeera noted that the WMO has activated climate information services and early warning systems to help governments and humanitarian agencies prepare support plans for farmers and vulnerable communities. Dawn emphasized the WMO's classification of El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, indicating that the coming event is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.

The two outlets also covered the broader context of recent temperature records, with both reporting that the last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high, at about 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. Al Jazeera added that global ocean temperatures hit a new high in June, partly driven by El Niño.

Key Claims

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months. The WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards a rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July-September, according to Dawn.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo was quoted by Al Jazeera as saying: "El Niño conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event – as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world." Saulo added that "advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities."

The WMO's forecasts indicate that seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions, with models showing "remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook," as reported by Dawn. El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe, while the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average.

The agency has also highlighted that there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, a claim reported by Dawn.

The WMO's warning comes as the UN agency has activated climate information services and early warning systems to help governments and humanitarian agencies prepare support plans for farmers and vulnerable communities, according to Al Jazeera.

How each outlet told it

Al Jazeera as of Jul 3, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC

Framing: El Nino to bring extreme weather events — Informative and cautionary

Facts Included:

World Meteorological Organization forecasts more likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall due to El Nino
El Nino conditions had already set in and are forecast to strengthen rapidly between July and September
Global ocean temperatures hit a new high in June, partly driven by El Nino
The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high, at about 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average

Read the source article →

Dawn as of Jul 3, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC

Framing: Warning of extreme weather due to El Niño — Informative and cautionary

Facts Included:

El Niño will quickly develop into a strong event between July and September
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
The World Meteorological Organisation classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong
The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average
The WMO says there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimEl Niño will quickly develop into a strong event between July and September, fuelling the likelihood of extreme weather.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from Dawn as of Jul 3, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim
ClaimEl Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from Dawn as of Jul 3, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim
ClaimThe World Meteorological Organisation classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Dawn as of Jul 3, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC
ClaimThe last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from Dawn as of Jul 3, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim
ClaimGlobal ocean temperatures hit a new high in June, partly driven by El Nino.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 3, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC
ClaimThe WMO says there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Dawn as of Jul 3, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC
ClaimWorld Meteorological Organization forecasts more likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall due to El Nino.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 3, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

2 outlets · 2 articles consulted: Al Jazeera, Dawn 7 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-15