Ukraine's drones are hitting Russia, but this campaign could backfire

Ukraine's long-range drone campaign brings war home to Russians

Ukraine has been firing drones hundreds of kilometres deep inside Russian territory almost every day since June, according to a report by ABC Australia. The attacks have hit oil refineries, critical infrastructure and, more recently, warehouses belonging to a major Russian online retailer, according to the report.

The long-range drones have travelled more than 2,000 kilometres, with even Siberia now within reach, the ABC reported.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said his aim is to make ordinary Russians feel the pain of the war by crippling the country's economy and disrupting everyday life, the ABC reported. Whether the strategy succeeds remains uncertain, but the campaign has become increasingly aggressive in recent weeks, according to the report.

Coverage comparison

ABC Australia has produced two reports examining different facets of the drone campaign. The first focuses on the strategic calculus behind the strikes, quoting analysts who warn that the strategy could backfire and give Russian President Vladimir Putin an excuse to escalate fighting. The second report takes a more human-centred approach, interviewing Russians who describe growing anxiety and economic strain as prices soar and fuel becomes scarce.

Key claims

The drone attacks have hit oil refineries, critical infrastructure, and warehouses, according to ABC Australia. The report notes that an attack on a Russian city killed at least 13 people, though it does not specify who was responsible for that particular strike.

Russian authorities say they shot down 456 Ukrainian drones during one attack, but some got through, hitting an oil refinery and a hostel in a city more than 1,000 kilometres east of Moscow. A separate incident last week killed seven people on a beach in southern Russia when a drone was intercepted and crashed, according to the ABC.

Analysts quoted by the ABC are divided on the campaign's effectiveness. Marina Miron from King's College London is quoted as saying the strategy is "one of last resort, because Ukraine has its back against the wall." Charles Hecker from the Royal United Services Institute in London said the campaign has been "effective on a number of fronts," taking the Russians by surprise.

On the home front, ABC Australia reports that prices of many items have soared in Russia, fuel is scarce, and even domestic travel can be difficult. The Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped to its lowest level in around four years, and Putin's approval rating has fallen to its lowest since the start of the full-scale invasion, at 74%, according to the ABC.

Wildberries, a major Russian online marketplace often compared to Amazon, has had warehouses targeted by the strikes, affecting operations and the livelihoods of its customers, the report says. Long queues at petrol stations have resulted from the attacks on oil refineries.

ABC Australia's reporting paints a picture of growing anxiety and frustration among Russians, who had largely been shielded from the war's impacts in the early years. Personal stories highlight the psychological toll, with one Russian telling the ABC of nights spent lying in bed and feeling the explosions nearby. The report notes that for the first time in the war, the conflict has become a tangible presence in the lives of ordinary Russians through the daily threat of drone attacks and the resulting economic pressures.