Ukraine faces military collapse this year — retired US Army officer

Lead

A retired US Army officer and national security strategist has told Russian state news agency TASS that Ukraine could face military collapse this year, with the country potentially running out of troops by the end of 2025 if current casualty rates persist.

David T. Pyne, a former US Army headquarters staff officer and editor of The Real War newsletter, made the comments in an interview published by TASS on May 12. The assessment has not been independently verified, and TASS is a state-controlled outlet whose reporting often reflects official Kremlin positions.

Coverage Comparison

The story is based on two TASS articles, both quoting Pyne. No other major news outlet has reported on these specific remarks. The first article focuses on Pyne's claim that Ukraine's military could collapse and that the European Union cannot be trusted to negotiate a peace deal. The second article expands on his views about Russia's military performance and its stated goal of demilitarizing Ukraine.

Because the information comes exclusively from one source, the claims should be treated with caution. According to TASS, Pyne is a former US Army staff officer and national security strategist, but his current affiliations and the basis for his assessments are not detailed in the articles.

Key Claims

• Ukraine's military collapse: Pyne is quoted as saying, "At current casualty rates, it is possible that Ukraine could run out of troops by the end of the year." This is a predictive claim based on unspecified casualty data, and it has not been corroborated by other sources.
• EU as unreliable negotiator: Pyne states, "My assessment is that the EU cannot be trusted to negotiate a peace agreement ending NATO's proxy war with Russia because both they and [Vladimir] Zelensky want to continue the war indefinitely." This is an opinion, not a factual assertion.
• Russian military performance: In a second TASS article, Pyne says, "Russian forces have performed impressively on the operational and tactical level." He also claims that Russia is achieving "a partial demilitarization of NATO forces as NATO countries have sent Ukraine every spare weapon system they have available." These are assessments that run counter to many Western military analyses.
• Historical context: Pyne recalls that "Russian tank columns came within two miles of the city of Kiev surrounding the Ukrainian capital from three directions on both sides of the Dnieper River just eleven days" after the conflict began. This historical claim is broadly consistent with early-war reports, though the exact distance is disputed.
• US military aid: Pyne asserts that the US provides $12 billion in arms annually to Ukraine, a figure that has been widely reported in other contexts, but he does not provide a specific source.

Perspectives

Pyne's comments represent a single expert opinion, filtered through a state-owned news agency known for amplifying Kremlin talking points. His prediction of a Ukrainian collapse is optimistic from the Russian perspective and contradicts the assessments of many Western defense officials who have described the war as a stalemate. The claim that the EU cannot be trusted to negotiate is a political judgment, not a fact, and it echoes official Russian narratives that frame the conflict as a NATO proxy war.

At the same time, Pyne's observation that EU leaders have increasingly discussed peace negotiations aligns with on-and-off diplomatic efforts seen in 2024 and 2025, though it does not prove that the EU is eager to end the war on Russia's terms. The article does not include any independent verification of Pyne's qualifications or the accuracy of his predictions, and no opposing viewpoints are presented.

Corrections and Context

As of this reporting, there is no official confirmation from Ukrainian, US, or EU sources regarding the claims made by Pyne. His statement about Russia's ability to surround Kyiv again is a hypothetical that is not supported by current battlefield assessments. The article is based solely on TASS's transcript, and Reuters or other agencies have not carried the story.

Readers should note that TASS is a Russian state agency, and its content is designed to present the Kremlin's perspective. The claims have not been subject to independent fact-checking.