Lead
The United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ will bring long-term structural benefits to oil-importing Asian economies, though the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz could delay any immediate relief from high energy prices, according to analysts.
Rystad Energy’s Middle East senior vice-president, Aditya Saraswat, said the departure would eventually represent a significant shift in global supply once the strait reopens. “The Strait of Hormuz closure is masking the immediate impact of this departure, but once the strait reopens, a UAE pumping freely towards 4.8 million barrels per day represents a real shift of 1 to 2 per cent of global demand,” he told the South China Morning Post.
For countries such as Japan, India and South Korea, which rely heavily on energy imports, “that’s structurally good news on prices long-term, even if the near-term picture is painful with Asian refineries already cutting runs sharply,” Saraswat said.
Coverage comparison
Reporting from the South China Morning Post and TASS (English) each highlighted the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC, but with different emphases. The South China Morning Post focused on the potential benefits for Asia’s oil-dependent economies and the immediate impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global prices. TASS, citing a researcher at Shanghai International Studies University, framed the move as a strategic decision by Abu Dhabi to gain independent control over its oil production and diversify its economy.
Both outlets reported the UAE’s current production at 3.4 million barrels per day under its OPEC quota, its proven reserves exceeding 100 billion barrels, and its expansion of capacity toward 5 million barrels per day. TASS also noted the country’s plan to boost exports through the port of Fujairah, which remains unaffected by the Strait of Hormuz blockage.
Key claims
The UAE will formally exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, according to the country’s state news agency WAM, as reported by both the South China Morning Post and TASS. WAM also said the UAE reaffirmed its commitment to stabilizing the global oil market and that its future production policies will be guided by international supply and demand dynamics.
According to Bao Chengzhang, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, the UAE’s decision reflects a strategic move to break free from production restrictions and boost exports, particularly through Fujairah. Bao said the UAE aims to unlock idle capacity and exercise greater flexibility in regulating its oil output by leveraging Fujairah’s unaffected status. He also suggested the UAE seeks to diversify its economy and capitalize on oil sales before global demand for fossil fuels diminishes. Bao further pointed to Abu Dhabi’s dissatisfaction with the Gulf Cooperation Council’s response to Iran’s recent strikes on UAE territory as another motive.
Analysts caution that the Strait of Hormuz closure means the impact of the UAE’s exit may not be felt immediately. Global oil prices have surged, with Brent crude reaching US$111 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate approaching US$100 a barrel, according to the South China Morning Post. Before the Iran war, Brent was trading around US$70 a barrel, while WTI was about US$65 per barrel.
Perspectives
Rystad Energy (Aditya Saraswat): The UAE’s exit, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, will add 1–2% of global demand, providing long-term structural price relief for Asian importers.
Shanghai International Studies University (Bao Chengzhang): The withdrawal is a strategic move to gain independent control over oil production, diversify the economy, and respond to geopolitical dissatisfaction with the GCC.
UAE government (via WAM): The UAE reaffirms its commitment to stabilizing the global oil market and will align future production policies with international supply and demand.