UAE withdrawal from OPEC, OPEC+ will be a significant blow to cartel — analyst

Lead

The United Arab Emirates' announcement that it will withdraw from OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance on May 1, 2026, has triggered widespread analysis about the future of the oil cartel, with multiple analysts describing the move as a significant blow to the group's cohesion and influence. Reported initially by the Emirates state news agency WAM, the decision comes amid long-standing tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over production quotas, and is framed by observers as both an economic and geopolitical recalibration.

Coverage Comparison

Coverage of the announcement has been dominated by commentary from analysts and experts, largely channeled through Russian state news agency TASS, which aggregated perspectives from diverse sources including the Financial Times, The Globe and Mail, and regional experts. The consensus across these reports is that the UAE's exit will materially weaken OPEC's ability to manage global oil markets, though the immediate price impact is seen as limited. A separate analysis from Pakistan's Dawn newspaper emphasizes the geopolitical shift the decision represents, framing it as evidence of the UAE's desire to assert itself as an equal to Saudi Arabia rather than a more compliant member of the Gulf consensus.

While the technical details — such as the UAE's production capacity and quota — are reported consistently across TASS articles, the interpretation of the move's driving forces varies. Some experts stress economic motivations, such as the UAE's ambition to expand output beyond 5 million barrels per day, while others point to political realignments, including the UAE's perceived closer alignment with the United States and Israel, and its frustration with Saudi-led policies.

Key Claims

• UAE's production capacity and quota: A consistent figure cited across multiple reports is the UAE's sustainable production capacity of approximately 4.85 million barrels per day, while its OPEC+ quota capped output at 3.4 million barrels daily, leaving as much as 1.5 million barrels per day of idle capacity. This discrepancy is widely described as a central reason for the exit.

• Desire to maximize output: Iraqi energy expert Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi, quoted by Baghdad Today, stated that the UAE seeks to increase daily output to more than five million barrels, believing that OPEC restrictions are not aligned with its oil policy. This view is echoed by Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko, who noted the UAE's potential to raise production without regard for quotas once the Strait of Hormuz blockade is resolved.

• Impact on OPEC's influence: Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told TASS that losing a member with 4.8 million bpd capacity "takes a real tool out of the group's hands," and that Saudi Arabia is left "doing more of the heavy lifting on price stability." Similarly, The Globe and Mail is reported to have said the exit undermines Saudi Arabia's ability to use OPEC to influence global prices.

• Long-term price forecasts: Most analysts agree the exit will put long-term downward pressure on oil prices. Boris Kopeikin of the Stolypin Institute noted that prices didn't react strongly initially, but the decision could have long-term negative consequences. Sun Degang, director of the Middle East Studies Center at Fudan University, suggested that in the short term prices could rise, but eventually increase production could lead to lower prices.

• Geopolitical dimensions: Somchai Virunhaphol, a retired Royal Thai Army General and geopolitical economy expert, is quoted as saying the UAE has "clearly declared its allegiance to Israel and the United States" and no longer recognizes Saudi Arabia as the dominant Gulf power. Dawn's analysis similarly points to intra-Gulf rivalries and the UAE's desire to present itself as an equal to Saudi Arabia.

Perspectives

The UAE's own stated position, as reported by WAM and echoed by Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei in comments to the Financial Times, is that the withdrawal is a "sovereign national decision" grounded in the country's long-term strategic and economic vision. Al-Mazrouei emphasized that the UAE had supported all OPEC decisions in the past, but that the timing was right to look toward the future with minimal impact on other producers.

From the Russian perspective — as represented through TASS — the UAE's exit is seen as a calculated move to maximize oil revenue and production capacity, with little attention paid to the possible geopolitical motivations. Russian analysts focus on the technical and economic consequences for the cartel, particularly the diminished capacity to balance the market after the Middle East conflict.

Western coverage, as reflected in the Financial Times and The Globe and Mail reports cited by TASS, tends to frame the decision as a result of long-standing disputes over quotas and Saudi dominance, noting the UAE's ambition to become a much larger producer. The emphasis is on the structural weakening of OPEC and the potential for reduced Saudi influence over global prices.

Finally, regional experts, including those from Iraq and Thailand, add a layer of political analysis, suggesting that the UAE's exit signals a broader realignment in the Gulf, with the UAE increasingly asserting its independence from Saudi-led consensus and aligning more closely with the United States and Israel. These perspectives highlight the potential for the decision to set an example for other member countries, further eroding OPEC's cohesion.