UAE will not increase oil production after leaving OPEC — minister

Lead

The United Arab Emirates has formally withdrawn from OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1, 2026, a decision its officials say was not directed at any nation and will not trigger an immediate rise in oil output. The move, announced earlier by the Emirati state news agency WAM, comes after months of reported tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over production policy and regional issues.

In a series of statements carried by TASS and Dawn, UAE officials and international analysts offered differing assessments of what prompted the exit and what it will mean for global markets.

Coverage comparison

Reporting on the withdrawal has focused on three main threads: official UAE explanations, the impact on oil prices, and the state of UAE-Saudi relations. TASS, the Russian state news agency, carried multiple interviews with UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei and with Turkish and Malaysian experts, while Dawn, a Pakistani daily, provided a more critical account centering on tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Dawn’s coverage, which described the decision as “shocking,” highlighted long-running disagreements between the two Gulf allies, including a public falling out in December over Yemen, and quoted UAE Minister Sultan Al Jaber, who heads state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), insisting the move was “not a decision directed against anyone.”

TASS’s reports, by contrast, focused on the technical and market-related justifications offered by Al Mazrouei, including the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure and the UAE’s intention to remain a “responsible producer.”

Key claims

According to statements carried by TASS, the UAE will not increase oil production immediately after leaving OPEC and OPEC+. “This is not a decision to raise the production. This is a policy decision taken at the right time for all of the producers. Are we going to increase the production tomorrow? No,” Al Mazrouei said in an interview broadcast on CNBC. He added that the UAE will remain a “responsible producer.”

Al Mazrouei also addressed the reasoning behind the exit. He said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which restricted the flow of oil and petroleum products from the Gulf, influenced the decision among other factors. “If you look at the supply and demand balance, and with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz restricting the flow of crude and products from the Gulf to the world, you need to act and to do strategies different from any ones before,” he said.

The minister insisted the move was not directed at Saudi Arabia or any other OPEC member. “This has nothing to do with any of our brothers or friends within the group. We’ve been working together for years. We have the highest respect for the Saudis for leading OPEC and OPEC+ as a major producer,” he said in a separate CNBC interview.

However, Dawn’s report, citing remarks by Sultan Al Jaber, described the exit as a “sovereign decision” tied to national priorities. Jaber said the move “serves our national interests and long-term strategic objectives” and was part of a broader effort to reshape the UAE economy. Dawn also noted that the decision followed “months of tensions” with Saudi Arabia over foreign policy, oil output, and the Middle East war, and said the exit dealt a blow to the cartel’s ability to control prices.

On production capacity, TASS reported that the UAE believes the global economy will require more energy resources in the future and is ready to meet those needs, including for crude, petroleum products, and gas. The UAE has previously announced plans to expand production capacity to five million barrels a day by 2027, as reported by Dawn.

On the market impact, Al Mazrouei said the withdrawal would have only a “minimum impact” on prices. “We believe that the world is currently undersupplied. And our exit at this time is the right time for it because it will have a minimum impact on the price and on our friends at OPEC and OPEC+,” he said.

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar offered a cautiously optimistic view, saying the exit could help stabilize global prices. “We are analyzing the situation. We will see the consequences. Our expectations regarding global [oil] prices are to ensure balance,” he told reporters. He noted that even during the pandemic, global consumption did not fall by 11 million barrels, calling the current situation “a serious problem.”

Malaysian academic Jomo Kwame Sundaram, a former UN Assistant Secretary-General, was less convinced the exit would matter much. “OPEC does not really determine the current oil price movements. It is more affected by war and war tactics,” he said, adding that the UAE’s move affects unity among producers but that long-term impact on the global market remains limited.

Al Mazrouei also warned that neither the UAE nor other OPEC members would be able to replenish the oil supply deficit that emerged after the Strait of Hormuz reopened. “The UAE and OPEC countries will not be able to replenish the deficit of oil supplies after Hormuz Strait opening,” he said, adding that “nobody can guarantee the strait will always be open and will not be blocked again."

Perspectives

UAE government: Officials, including Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei and Minister Sultan Al Jaber, portray the withdrawal as a sovereign, strategically timed decision that is not directed against any country, will not lead to an immediate production increase, and aims to align the UAE’s energy policy with its national economic goals while remaining a responsible producer.

Turkish government: Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar expresses cautious optimism that the UAE’s exit could contribute to balancing global oil prices, while acknowledging the severity of current market disruptions.

Academic/expert view: Professor Jomo Kwame Sundaram of the Malaysian Academy of Science argues that OPEC’s influence on oil prices is limited and that geopolitical factors, including war, play a larger role; he sees the UAE’s move as having a limited long-term market impact.