Trump wants more economic pressure on Iran. What are his options?

Trump’s Latest Warnings and Timeline

United States President Donald Trump has vowed to intensify economic pressure on Iran, framing the effort as a major escalation in the long-running sanctions campaign. On Friday he pledged to hit Iran hard economically, a day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would impose measures that have “never been seen,” with action possible as soon as next week. Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2 p.m. EDT on Monday, according to reporting carried by Al-Monitor and the Times of Israel.

In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, Trump declared an “economic D-Day” against Iran and described the campaign as “the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country.” He warned of “tremendous economic consequences” for any country helping Iran subvert U.S. sanctions through methods such as oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies, as reported by Al Jazeera. Iran has denounced the plans for new sanctions that could further strain its economy.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the U.S. economic campaign “economic terrorism” in a post on X, according to Al Jazeera. The broader sanctions architecture dates back decades: the United States, United Nations and European Union have applied sanctions, trade embargoes and asset freezes since the late 1970s over Iran’s nuclear program, human rights record and support for militant groups. Since the Iran war began in February, Washington has added maritime, energy and financial sanctions and initiated a naval blockade, according to Al-Monitor, the Times of Israel and The Indian Express.

Scale of Existing Sanctions

Data from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control show the agency has imposed sanctions on more than 1,000 people, vessels and aircraft since Trump began his second term, a figure reported across Al-Monitor, The Indian Express and the Times of Israel. Recent measures have targeted Iran’s shadow oil fleet, shipping insurers, entities and people enabling weapons procurement, and digital exchanges, freezing an estimated $500 billion in Iran-linked cryptocurrency.

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are at a standstill, with Tehran threatening to strike unauthorized tankers attempting passage, according to the same outlets. The United Arab Emirates announced an indefinite trade embargo on Iran after accusing Iran’s military of launching two ballistic missiles at its territory, a development noted by Al Jazeera and Dawn.

China’s Central Role in Iran’s Oil Trade

China remains the dominant buyer of Iranian oil, purchasing more than 80 percent of Iran’s shipped crude in 2025 according to data from analytics firm Kpler cited by Al Jazeera, Al-Monitor, The Indian Express, the Times of Israel and Dawn. Kpler estimates put Chinese purchases at an average of 1.38 million barrels per day that year, Dawn reported. Chinese independent refineries known as “teapots” account for a quarter of China’s refining capacity and absorb much of this trade; they operate on narrow and sometimes negative profit margins.

Past U.S. sanctions have deterred larger independent refiners, yet smaller teapot refiners remain largely shielded because of limited exposure to the U.S. financial system, sanctions experts told outlets drawing on Reuters material. The U.S. Treasury in April sanctioned a Chinese independent refinery for buying billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil, Dawn reported. The department has also warned two larger Chinese banks, not publicly named, that they could face sanctions if Iranian funds were traced through their systems, though it has not yet designated them, according to Al-Monitor, The Indian Express and the Times of Israel.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said more sanctions would “not help to solve the issue” and that sanctions and pressure will not solve the problem, comments carried by Al Jazeera and Dawn. Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera noted the difficulty of unilateral pressure. Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, said “it is going to be very difficult” for Trump to execute the campaign effectively, arguing that coordinated sanctions traditionally require multilateral buy-in including from China and Russia.

Russia and Regional Trading Partners

Russia and Iran signed a 20-year partnership treaty in January 2025, Al Jazeera reported. Trade volume between the two reached $4.8 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, according to Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev. Russia already operates under sweeping U.S. sanctions and largely outside the U.S.-led financial system, limiting additional leverage, analysts told Al Jazeera.

Dawn detailed Iran’s trade relationships with neighboring and regional states that could face secondary pressure. Pakistan and Iran have committed to expanding bilateral trade to $10 billion; informal trade already stands at approximately $4 billion according to unofficial statistics. India’s trade with Iran fell from $17 billion in 2018-19 to nearly $4.8 billion in 2019-20 and further to $1.63 billion in 2025-26, with Indian officials previously arguing that cereal, tea, coffee and spice exports continue on humanitarian grounds.

Türkiye imports 13 percent of its natural gas from Iran. Iraq’s trade with Iran exceeded $10 billion in 2025, with Iraq paying $4 billion to $5 billion annually for natural gas, according to Iraqi energy officials cited by Dawn. Oman’s trade totaled $1.5 billion in 2025 per data from Oman’s National Centre for Statistics and Information. Armenia’s trade with Iran reached $768 million, or 3.6 percent of its total turnover, in 2025, rising to $371.4 million in the first half of 2026. Azerbaijan’s trade turnover with Iran rose 4.5 percent in January-June 2026 to $312.6 million, according to Azerbaijan’s State Customs Committee.

Policy Options and Constraints

Experts cited by Al-Monitor, The Indian Express and the Times of Israel outline several avenues for heightened pressure. Secondary sanctions on Chinese teapot refiners could target the main buyers of Iranian oil. Designating larger Chinese banks risks unsettling financial institutions and prompting retaliation from Beijing, at a time when U.S. officials have sought to ease tensions ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Land-based pressure involving neighbors such as Pakistan and Türkiye has also been discussed as a possible lever.

The Senate passed a Russia sanctions bill last week that includes new Iran sanctions and would grant Trump additional tariff powers, according to Al-Monitor, The Indian Express and the Times of Israel. Iran’s Central Bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati has said Iran planned to join the BRICS New Development Bank, Al Jazeera reported, reflecting efforts to diversify financial channels.

Brett Erickson and Miad Maleki, among other analysts quoted in the coverage, have described the challenge of closing remaining loopholes as a persistent “whack-a-mole” exercise. The combination of China’s willingness to continue oil purchases through ring-fenced refiners, Russia’s existing insulation from Western finance, and the economic stakes for Iran’s immediate neighbors defines the practical limits on any new round of unilateral U.S. measures.

Iranian and Chinese Responses

Iranian officials have rejected the legitimacy of further sanctions and framed them as economic aggression. Chinese statements have consistently opposed additional pressure, arguing it will not resolve underlying disputes. These positions, together with the trade data and expert assessments reported across the outlets, illustrate the multi-sided constraints facing an intensified U.S. economic campaign.