Trump says no talks are taking place with Iran and none are scheduled

Trump denies talks as Iran holds Hormuz conditions

US President Donald Trump said on August 18 that no negotiations with Iran were under way or planned, while reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating. In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: "There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated."

Iran's top negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said in comments carried by state media that the strait would remain shut until the United States meets conditions of the interim deal signed in June. Those conditions include lifting the blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

Trump has also claimed the naval blockade has been successful and that Hormuz is open to navigation. "Right now, the Strait [of Hormuz] is open. A lot of boats are coming through," he told reporters, adding that the blockade has been "100% successful" and that "no boats have gotten into Iran, but they are getting in for other places."

Conflicting signals on diplomacy

Despite Trump's denial of active talks, his son-in-law and special envoy Jared Kushner said on Monday that conversations between the US government and different areas of the Iranian government were "probably more robust than it's maybe ever been." Kushner told Fox News he could not go into details but was optimistic about the discussions.

Trump, however, has offered mixed signals. Asked on August 18 whether the US was seeking to extend June's interim agreement, he said no. A day later, he said the US could resume negotiations "sooner or later," adding "Maybe at some point, but right now the situation is so good." He repeated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and that the United States has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz.

In an interview with WABC radio, Trump suggested that the deaths of a significant portion of Iran's leadership were complicating a deal. "Part of the problem is [that] so many of the leaders are gone. It's not easy to make a deal. Nobody knows who's leading [the country]," he said.

Trump also said on August 2 that he had agreed to call off a planned major strike on Iran to reach a deal, saying Tehran and Arab capitals had asked the US to refrain from an attack.

Iran's domestic and regional narrative

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the economic strain facing the country. "I understand we have many problems in society right now," he said in a speech broadcast on state television. He said that "thanks to US President Donald Trump, Iran is in a full-scale economic, military and security war." His remarks came after the United States announced a new sanctions campaign against Iran.

Pezeshkian defended the June memorandum of understanding with the United States, saying "there is not a single provision in this agreement that amounts to capitulation." He also stressed that capital and money are "extremely sensitive to risk" and that the country needs to remove that risk.

Qalibaf, meanwhile, said Tehran had received "numerous messages" from neighboring countries about new security arrangements and economic cooperation in the region. He accused the United States of putting "the security of every single one of its allies at such risk through bullying and pure disregard for their interests for the sake of Israel that they briefly saw their entire existence on the line." He argued that "a homegrown, independent order is what will actually deliver peace and security."

Background: from February strikes to a stalled memorandum

The United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding — mediated by Pakistan and Qatar — providing for an immediate ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and opening a 60-day window for negotiations toward a final agreement.

The United States resumed large-scale attacks on Iran overnight into July 8, accusing Tehran of breaching the agreements concerning the Strait of Hormuz. Talks have since stalled amid disputes over implementation of the memorandum and arrangements for navigation through the strait, a critical route for global energy supplies, accounting for about 25% of global oil trade and around 20% of liquefied natural gas trade.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Iran will shift to a "fully offensive" military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the United States have stalled. Meanwhile, ship-tracking data showed the strait remained bottled up with thousands of seafarers stranded on hundreds of vessels. Iran has also allowed a number of Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the strait following repeated requests from Baghdad, according to Iran's state news agency.