Trump in trouble?: How could Graham's death, McConnell's sickness affect US Senate after midterms?

Lead

Senate Republicans return to a Capitol increasingly crowded with legislative priorities and internal pressures, even as the party's majority faces immediate disruptions from the deaths and health issues of key members. With the November midterm elections approaching, lawmakers in both parties are eager to claim victories, but the path forward has grown more complicated.

Coverage comparison

Reports from The Guardian and the Jerusalem Post offer different angles on the same set of developments. The Guardian's coverage focuses on the legislative maneuvering around the Save America Act, a Republican-backed voting bill, and President Trump's insistence that Congress pass it. The Jerusalem Post, meanwhile, centers its analysis on the personal losses and health challenges within the Senate Republican caucus and their potential effects on the balance of power.

Key claims

Save America Act advances in House but faces Senate wall

The House of Representatives passed a spending bill linked to the Save America Act on Wednesday, largely along party lines. The bill, which would ban mail-in ballots and impose new identification requirements on voters, has no viable path through the Senate, where top Democrats oppose it and can use the filibuster to block its advancement, as reported by The Guardian.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer vowed again to block the measure, saying, "I'll say it as many times as it takes: the [Save America] Act is dead on arrival here in the Senate." He added, "I don't care how Republicans try to package their plan to resurrect the old ghost of Jim Crow – we will kill it."

President Trump has repeatedly insisted that Congress's Republican majorities approve the Save America Act, going as far as to disrupt the legislative agenda to underscore his demands. He has tied its passage to the renewal of a foreign surveillance law, according to The Guardian. The same report notes that the House had already approved a version of the bill in February, but it stalled in the Senate.

Government shutdown risk

The attachment of the Save America Act to appropriations measures could lead to a government shutdown, as reported by The Guardian. The potential for the measure to be combined with spending bills raises the stakes for the fall, when funding deadlines loom.

Graham's death and McConnell's health

Former US senator Lindsey Graham died overnight on Saturday, and Senator Mitch McConnell remains in the hospital in an unknown condition, according to the Jerusalem Post. Graham, who served as the budget committee chair, was a key player in negotiating a party-line bill to fund additional defense spending and other priorities outlined by the president, as detailed in The Guardian's coverage.

Senate Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority over Democrats, the Jerusalem Post reported. With Graham's seat vacant and McConnell absent, the majority is effectively down two members. If both seats were filled by Democrats, the Senate would shift to an even narrower 51-49 split, making legislation harder to pass in an already deadlocked Congress, the report said.

South Carolina's governor was expected to appoint a replacement for Graham in the coming days, according to The Guardian.

Trump approval and midterm outlook

According to polling cited by the Jerusalem Post, Trump's approval rating is approximately 39%, with 58% disapproving of his performance as president. His last average approval rating of 50% was in February 2025. The same poll shows Democrats holding a modest lead overall in midterm races, a pattern consistent with the party out of power gaining seats in midterm elections.

GOP legislative push before recess

Republicans are rapidly trying to push legislation such as the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act, the National Defense Authorization Act, and several government funding bills before their August recess, the Jerusalem Post reported. Congress also needs to pass ten appropriations bills before the end of the fiscal year.

Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers remain confounded by Trump's renewed focus on the Save America Act, as reported in The Guardian's analysis. The president has refused to sign a major housing bill supported by both parties to protest the lack of progress on the voting measure. His allies on the right wing of the House have also held up chamber business while insisting that Senate Republican leaders change the rules to push through the priority legislation. That standoff forced Speaker Mike Johnson to send the House into its Independence Day recess early last month.

Perspectives

• Trump administration and House Republicans (as cited by The Guardian and the Jerusalem Post): Cast the Save America Act as necessary to prevent non-citizens from voting and combat election fraud, and argue that the GOP can prove its commitment to voters by passing priority legislation before the midterms.
• Senate Democrats (as cited by The Guardian): Oppose the Save America Act, with Schumer describing it as a modern-day "Jim Crow" measure, and vowing to block it in the Senate.
• Voting rights advocates (as cited by The Guardian): Warn that there is no evidence of widespread election tampering and that the bill could disenfranchise eligible voters.