A pattern of primary defeats

Republican primary voters dealt President Donald Trump a series of setbacks on Tuesday, with his endorsed candidates losing in Wyoming and two congressional races in Florida. Nearly 300,000 voters participated in the Republican contests across the three races, but candidates backed by Trump secured only about 28% of the combined vote, underscoring growing resistance to the president's endorsements within his own party.

The latest defeats bring the number of Trump-endorsed candidates rejected by Republican primary voters this election cycle to 10. That figure matches the combined number of Trump-backed candidates who lost Republican primaries in 2018, 2020 and 2024, according to a CNN analysis based on Trump endorsements compiled by Ballotpedia. It is also nearing the record of 12 losses recorded during the 2022 primary season, when half of those defeats came in Georgia.

Six of the 10 Trump-backed candidates who have lost this year were defeated in August alone, including Minnesota gubernatorial candidate Mike Lindell, Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles and Michigan congressional candidate Amir Hassan.

Losses in key races

In Wyoming, Megan Degenfelder was defeated in the gubernatorial primary, receiving less than 30% of the vote. In Florida's 19th Congressional District, Catalina Lauf lost to Jim Schwartzel, securing about 22% of the vote.

In the Florida 7th Congressional District, Rep. Cory Mills, a Trump-endorsed incumbent, lost to former news anchor Ryan Elijah. Trump had endorsed Mills in February and never publicly rescinded his support, but the president appeared to distance himself from Mills after the loss. Trump said he had urged Mills to drop out of the race before the primary, and Mills was conspicuously absent from a list Trump posted earlier this month of Florida Republicans he endorsed. Trump did not participate in tele-rallies on behalf of Mills, which he has done for several lawmakers he supports.

Mills has denied any wrongdoing regarding allegations of assault, potential campaign finance violations, and an ex-girlfriend's accusation that he threatened to release sexually explicit images and videos of her. The Ethics Committee is currently looking into multiple allegations against Mills, including campaign finance violations and sexual misconduct. Mills told CNN in April that he would not resign from Congress despite calls from some Republicans to step down amid the allegations. He said House Speaker Mike Johnson had told him in conversations not to give up his seat; Johnson did not directly confirm the exchange to CNN but said Mills should be afforded due process. Mills has also been under investigation by DC police for allegedly assaulting an individual, and a judge previously ordered him not to have any contact with the ex-girlfriend who accused him of threatening to release the images and videos.

Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos endorsed Elijah earlier this month, breaking with Mills. Trump carried the Florida 7th Congressional District by 13 points in 2024. Elijah is set to face Democrat Bale Dalton in the general election.

Broader trends and upcoming tests

The losses are part of a broader pattern this primary season. Five Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidates have now lost, compared with three in 2022. Trump-backed candidates have also lost 42% of the gubernatorial primaries in which he did not endorse an incumbent, five out of 12 contests.

A recent CNN poll found that between 30% and 50% or more of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents expressed dissatisfaction with Trump on several key issues. However, Trump had notable victories on Tuesday, including Byron Donalds winning the Florida gubernatorial primary with approximately 47.8% of the vote.

A White House official told Politico that Trump had a 98 percent success rate with endorsements, with 233 wins from 238 endorsements, though Politico reported that the White House did not provide the underlying list for that claim. A South Carolina Senate poll in July found that 46% of undecided Republican primary voters said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate.

Trump has endorsed Anthony DiLorenzo in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District and appointed Sen. Darline Graham for a special election in South Carolina. During a debate, Graham acknowledged she was 'not ... that informed on national security' when asked whether Taiwan should be considered a US national security issue. A defeat would make Graham only the fourth Trump-backed Senate candidate to lose a primary, after Alabama's Luther Strange in 2017, West Virginia's Evan Jenkins in 2018 and Utah's Trent Staggs in 2024.

The next test for Trump will be two runoffs on August 25, in South Carolina and Oklahoma.