Confidence Index Edges Lower
Americans’ confidence in the economy declined again in August, according to data released by The Conference Board. The organization’s consumer confidence index dipped to 89.4 from 90.2 in July, marking the lowest level in seven months. Multiple outlets including The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Barchart, Castanet and The Guardian reported that the reading remained essentially within the same lukewarm range recorded since the beginning of the year. By contrast, index readings had stood consistently above 100 in late 2024 and early 2025.
The Conference Board attributed the latest softening in large part to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has continued to push U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon. Respondents’ assessments of their present situation improved, yet their short-term outlook soured, a pattern noted across the coverage from Barchart, Castanet and The Guardian.
Survey Responses Highlight Persistent Price Concerns
Write-in comments collected between August 3 and August 16 were slightly more pessimistic than in the prior month. References to prices in general, and to oil and gasoline prices in particular, remained elevated. Mentions of war and geopolitics, food prices, trade and jobs all increased in August, according to reporting carried by Barchart, Castanet and The Guardian.
After five years of elevated inflation, Americans remain frustrated with the economy. That frustration is viewed as a potential political risk for President Donald Trump and Republicans with midterm elections less than 70 days away, a point emphasized in the same multi-outlet accounts.
Inflation Trajectory and Political Context
President Trump continues to blame high prices on his predecessor, Joe Biden. Yet inflation has risen since Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, stood at 2.5 percent at the time of the inauguration. By June it was up 3.7 percent from a year earlier—down from May’s 4.1 percent year-over-year increase but higher than the 2.8 percent recorded before the Iran war began on February 28. The government is scheduled to issue July PCE data on Wednesday.
The Boston Herald, in a preview published ahead of the releases, noted that consumer confidence has been weak for most of the year as inflation has remained stubbornly high. It linked the inflation pressures in part to the U.S. war with Iran, which stifled oil supplies worldwide, raised gasoline prices and increased shipping costs for a wide range of goods. The same report observed that inflation had crept higher earlier after the imposition of tariffs and then leaped higher in early 2026 when the conflict curtailed oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at its September meeting.
Labor Market Views Mixed
Consumers’ perceptions of the current labor market brightened somewhat. Twenty-seven percent of respondents said jobs were “plentiful” in August, up from 24.4 percent in July, according to Barchart and The Guardian. Looking six months ahead, however, only 14.6 percent expected more jobs to become available, down from 16.4 percent the previous month.
Those softer expectations followed a weak July employment report in which employers cut 23,000 jobs. Labor Department revisions erased an additional 103,000 positions from the previously reported May and June payrolls. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, but the decline occurred because thousands of people left the labor force, reducing the number of individuals competing for work.
Data Calendar and Broader Backdrop
The Conference Board’s August confidence figures arrived Tuesday, fulfilling expectations reported earlier by The Boston Herald that Wall Street anticipated another decline after July’s slip. Wednesday’s PCE release will supply the next major reading on inflation. Together the two reports arrive against a backdrop of gasoline prices stuck above $4 a gallon and an inflation rate that has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target for an extended period.
The combination of lukewarm confidence, elevated price references in survey responses, and recent labor-market softness underscores the economic pressures facing households as the midterm election season intensifies.