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Australia's residential property market is undergoing a notable shift, according to recent data and expert analysis reported by ABC Australia. After a decades-long boom that saw average national home prices rise by more than 400% since 2000, the balance of power is moving toward buyers. June recorded the biggest monthly drop in home values in over three years, and auction clearance rates have fallen dramatically, with Brisbane's rate at 43% last week.

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The cooling trend is evidenced across multiple metrics. Asking prices for private treaty sales have been discounted by up to 3.6% below the original sale price over the past three months, up from 3% in the March quarter, according to data from Cotality. National median days on market increased to 42 days in June, with Western Australia recording the largest jump. Meanwhile, the number of properties listed for sale in Brisbane has surged almost 25% compared to the same time last year.

Experts attribute this cooling to a combination of factors. Gerard Burg, Cotality's head of research, noted that "cumulative effects over the last six or so months have dragged demand lower significantly." Tim Lawless, Cotality Research Director, pointed to the federal budget's changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, paired with interest rate rises, as giving buyers more choice.

Key claims

  • Average national home prices rose by over 400% since 2000.
  • June saw the biggest monthly drop in home values in over three years.
  • Auction clearance rates are down, with Brisbane's rate at 43% last week.
  • The federal budget included changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts.
  • The number of properties listed for sale in Brisbane is up almost 25% on this time last year.
  • Asking prices are falling, with buyers paying up to 3.6% less than the original sale price.
  • National median days on market increased to 42 days in June.
  • Western Australia recorded the largest jump in median days on market.
  • 40% of vendors are signing contracts before auction day.
These figures paint a picture of a market in transition. Buyers like Brisbane resident Nicole Pengilly, who recently purchased a two-bedroom unit on the city's south side, describe a changed dynamic. "The real estate agents were more pursuing you this time around. It just felt like you had more time to think about whether you want to make offers," she told the ABC. Tim Lawless echoed this, saying "Buyers have much less urgency in their decision-making, and they can negotiate."

However, the market's direction remains uncertain. Freedom Property sales agent Tomas Tonks-Foote observed that in Redland City, south-east of Brisbane, a 10% price decline is possible. "A few years ago I used to say, 'Whatever you think a house is worth, add another $100,000.' Now what I'm thinking is that, but in reverse," he said.

Data from Homer, a property app analyzing agent sale trends, shows that 25.5% of the 144,772 listings it tracks have issued a second, lower price guide. The ACT had the highest share at 37.3%, followed by Queensland.

As the market adjusts, both buyers and sellers are navigating a landscape shaped by economic instability, policy changes, and shifting expectations. The coming months will reveal whether this cooling trend solidifies into a sustained downturn or stabilizes into a more balanced market.