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This rare Nebraska district backed Harris but sent a Republican to Congress. Can Democrats win here?
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, a rare 'blue dot' that backed Democrats for president but sent a Republican to the House, is the stage for one of the nation's most watched races. The open-seat contest between Republican Brinker Harding and Democrat Denise Powell tests how local dynamics fare against national political currents.
OMAHA, Neb. — “Do they still like Trump in Nebraska? I think so,” the president said during a recent event in Washington. Given that the state easily backed Republican Donald Trump three times and hasn't supported a Democrat for the White House since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, the answer may seem obvious.
But in Nebraska's largest city, it's an open question and could decide one of the country's most-watched congressional races. Retiring Rep. Don Bacon's open seat pits fellow Republican and Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding against Democratic activist Denise Powell.
The district encompasses an increasingly Democratic-leaning Omaha metro area of 1 million-plus and its more conservative suburbs — famous for steaks and the Reuben sandwich's birthplace, though New York disputes that.
A rare flip
It's one of just eight districts nationwide that elected Republicans in House races while supporting Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris over Trump two years ago. A Democrat has won the House seat only once since 1994.
Harding and Powell have been making the rounds at parades and festivals where meat raffles offer oversized sausages as prizes. However, those on-the-ground appeals could be drowned out by Trump who, like most things in politics, has moved to shape November's midterm elections in his own image.
The president is organizing a Republican midterm convention in Dallas next month that will serve as much a two-day rally for him as a boon to party candidates nationwide. Trump is also frequently visiting tightly contested districts, despite his low approval ratings and the unpopular war in Iran.
Voters speak
While Trump centers himself, Democrats are happy to oblige.
When Powell knocks on doors to talk to voters, she asks, “What's keeping you up at night?” On a sweaty Saturday afternoon, John Rosseter responded without hesitation. “Well, Trump.”
“I want to see the history books written years from now,” said Rosseter, 67, who owns a carpentry business. “They won't be pretty.”
How this outlet told it
PBS
Framing: Headline questions Democrats' chances in a district that backed Harris but sent a Republican to Congress. — Descriptive and neutral, with a touch of local color: 'they made the rounds at parades and festivals where meat raffles offer oversized sausages as prizes.'
Facts Included:
Nebraska backed Trump three times and hasn't supported a Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
Retiring Rep. Don Bacon's open seat pits Republican Brinker Harding against Democrat Denise Powell.
The district is one of eight nationwide that elected Republicans while backing Harris in 2020.
Nebraska splits electoral votes; the 2nd District has gone Democratic three out of five times since 2008.
A Democrat has won the House seat only once since 1994.
Harding has Trump's primary endorsement and campaigned with Mike Johnson and Steve Scalise.
Powell is co-founder of Women Who Run Nebraska.
Pete Buttigieg and Rahm Emanuel campaigned with Powell.
Powell talks about Medicare cuts increasing affordability anxiety.
Jason Brown and Ruth Huebner-Brown spray painted blue dot signs in 2024 and now produce 'Blue Dot Wave' signs.
Harding supporters have red 'Brinker Dot' signs.
Jack Hosking, 90, organizes weekly coffee; estimates 70% attendees are Trump voters, but half may support Powell.
RNC rebranded 'Young Guns' to 'MAGA Majority'.
Trump appeared with Reps. Lawler, Barrett, Mackenzie, Van Orden, Ciscomani, Nunn, and Miller-Meeks.
Bacon defied the White House: criticized Hegseth, tried to curb tariffs, opposed renaming Gulf of Mexico.
Nebraska GOP chair Mary Jane Truemper said Powell and Democrats moved too far left, called Harding 'a steady force'.
Powell praised Bacon as a good representative.
Andy Maxwell, pediatrician, recalled neighbors erecting Trump sign after his Biden sign in 2020.
Jerard Pearson called Democrats 'feckless' and referred to 'one-third level of crazy' among Trump supporters.
Truemper said Nebraskans like person-to-person wooing.
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Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimNebraska backed Republican Donald Trump three times and hasn't supported a Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
ClaimRetiring Rep. Don Bacon's open seat pits fellow Republican and Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding against Democratic activist Denise Powell.
ClaimThe district is one of just eight districts nationwide that elected Republicans in House races while supporting Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris over Trump in the 2020 election.
ClaimNebraska splits its presidential electoral votes, and the 2nd Congressional District's delegate has gone to Democrats three out of five times since 2008, making it a 'blue dot' in an otherwise Republican red state.
ClaimJason Brown and his wife, Ruth Huebner-Brown, spray painted about 50 reused lawn signs with blue dots and distributed them around Omaha's Dundee neighborhood in 2024.
ClaimJack Hosking, a 90-year-old retired former head of a title insurance company, organizes a weekly coffee to discuss political and community issues.
ClaimBacon sometimes defied the White House in his final term: he criticized Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, tried to curb Trump's ability to impose tariffs, and was the only House Republican who opposed renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.
ClaimMary Jane Truemper, head of the Nebraska Republican Party, said Powell and the state's Democrats have moved too far to the left and called Harding 'a steady force'.
ClaimPowell said, "Don Bacon was a good representative of this district, and I think that there are a lot of people drawn to a pragmatic style of leadership in a state like ours."
ClaimAndy Maxwell, a 58-year-old pediatrician, said he likes to find the middle ground in politics; he recalled that after he put up a Biden sign in his yard in 2020, his neighbors erected a Trump sign.
ClaimJerard Pearson, an 80-year-old, called Democrats 'feckless' and said of given Trump's base supporters, "I've always been curious about this one-third level of crazy out there, a third of the population."