Coverage Comparison

Australian ski resorts have officially opened their doors for the 2026 winter season, but the backdrop is a mix of optimism and caution. Reports from ABC Australia and The Guardian (World) highlight contrasting angles: ABC focuses on resort preparations and new snowmaking technology, while The Guardian emphasizes the threats posed by climate change and a likely El Niño. Both outlets agree on the core meteorological outlook but differ in tone and emphasis.

Key Claims

* Snowfall and Opening: Between 20cm and 40cm of snow fell across the Victorian and New South Wales alps before the long weekend, as reported by The Guardian. Snow cams showed snow blanketing some areas, while other spots remained patchy or bare. * Meteorological Forecast: The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is forecasting an unusually warm winter across Australia, with below-average snowfall expected in alpine regions. The BOM also notes a 60–80% chance of below-average rainfall and a high likelihood of temperatures in the top 20% of historical records. * El Niño Formation: Both ABC and The Guardian report that an El Niño is likely to form in the coming weeks, compounding the drier and warmer outlook. * Snowmaking Investment: Resorts have invested heavily in snowmaking technology, including new 'snow factories' that can produce snow in variable conditions. Alan Arthur, general manager of Alpine Resorts Victoria, told ABC that snow grooming and harvesting mean 'we only really need two or three decent falls of snow' to maintain a good product. * Economic and Visitation Trends: ABC reports that ski resort visitation has trended downwards over the past decade, while the economic output of Victorian alpine resorts exceeds $2 billion. * Climate Impact Studies: A 2024 Australian National University report, cited by The Guardian, projects that Australian ski seasons will shrink by 44–55 days by 2050. Another study referenced by The Guardian suggests a 15–17% reduction by 2030.

Perspectives

Resort Optimism: Resort managers are upbeat, citing successful snowmaking operations and strong early snowfalls. Thredbo's general manager, Stuart Diver, dismissed BOM's below-average forecast, noting last year was 'amazing' despite similar predictions. Perisher's social media channels showcased fresh snow with the caption, 'We couldn’t be more excited.'

Meteorological Caution: BOM senior forecaster Jonathan How described the combination of dry, warm conditions and El Niño as a 'bad combination' that 'tips the odds against a good season.' Climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua noted that while the long-range forecast leans toward less snow, short-term events like cold fronts could still bring significant snowfall, which is not fully captured in seasonal models.

Long-Term Climate Concerns: Experts warn that the underlying trend of rising temperatures and reduced snowfall will continue to challenge the ski industry. The ANU report's projections for shorter seasons by 2050 underscore the urgency of adaptation.

Economic and Cost-of-Living Pressures: The Guardian notes that the cost-of-living crisis may affect consumer behavior, with reports of visitors bringing their own food and complaints about soaring lift pass prices. Historically, a one-day pass cost about $100 in 2010, indicating a sharp rise in costs over the years.

Conclusion

As the season begins, the interplay of immediate snow conditions, technological investment, and long-term climate trends will determine whether Australian ski resorts can overcome the odds. While the flurries this week bring hope, the broader forecast remains challenging, leaving skiers and operators to navigate a season that could go either way.