Lead

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a fifth of global crude oil and nearly a third of liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes, is forcing Gulf producers to redraw their export maps. While the full economic fallout is still unfolding, recent reports illustrate how the world's top energy suppliers are scrambling to bypass the chokepoint — and how far they are from fully replacing it.

According to a detailed analysis carried by Dawn, the Pakistani English-language daily, the closure has raised profound questions about the future of global energy supply. "Where is the energy world heading?" the report asks, noting that the emerging picture suggests a new energy order is forming, one that may leave the Persian Gulf's traditional export routes permanently altered. The report dates the beginning of the crisis to February 28, 2026, after which the reliability of Gulf energy suppliers has been thrown into doubt.

Coverage Comparison

Coverage of the crisis has varied in depth and focus. TASS, the Russian state news agency, emphasized the impact on major Asian buyers, reporting that Saudi Arabia's oil shipments to China in May could slump by about half — to roughly 20 million barrels, down from around 40 million barrels in April. TASS attributed this projection to a Bloomberg report citing unnamed sources, highlighting a sharp rise in prices after Saudi Aramco's decision to raise export prices to record levels amid the conflict surrounding Iran and the effective closure of the Strait.

Dawn's reporting takes a broader view, examining how the closure is reshaping energy infrastructure and regional supply chains. The report details specific producer responses — from Saudi Arabia's use of an east-west pipeline to Kuwait's falling exports — and warns that additional disruption at the Bab al-Mandeb strait, controlled by Houthi forces in Yemen, could push oil prices toward $150 a barrel.

Key Claims

  • The Strait of Hormuz is closed, affecting 20% of crude oil and 30% of LNG shipments, according to Dawn.
  • Saudi Arabia is diverting most of its oil exports to the Western port of Yanbu, using its East-West pipeline to transport crude from eastern fields to the Red Sea, per Dawn.
  • Aramco is moving 7 million barrels per day through that pipeline, Dawn reports, noting that before hostilities began the figure was only about 2 million barrels per day.
  • Iraq's oil production has collapsed by 60–80% due to the war, according to Dawn.
  • Abu Dhabi is using the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Dawn reports.
  • Kuwait's crude oil exports have plummeted by more than 60% since early March 2026, per Dawn.
  • Qatar's LNG export capacity is down by approximately 17% due to attacks on its energy infrastructure, Dawn reports.
  • Saudi Arabia's oil supplies to China in May could fall by about half, according to a Bloomberg report cited by TASS.
  • Iran and the United States held talks in Islamabad on April 11 but failed to reach an agreement, TASS reports.
  • The US and other countries' navies will begin a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, TASS reported, citing a statement by President Trump on April 12.

Perspectives

The Producer's Dilemma

Gulf exporters are moving quickly to reroute flows, but infrastructure and capacity limits are constraining their efforts. Saudi Arabia's shift to Yanbu requires moving oil across the kingdom via pipeline — a route that existed before the crisis but is now being stretched. Dawn's reporting indicates Aramco has more than tripled throughput on the East-West pipeline to 7 million barrels per day, yet that still may not fully compensate for the loss of Hormuz traffic. Abu Dhabi's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline offers an alternative outlet to the Indian Ocean, but its reach is similarly limited. These actions suggest that while pipeline bypasses are being activated, they are not a panacea; the physical limits of existing infrastructure mean that some export volumes will simply be lost until the strait reopens.

The Consumer's Vulnerability

The impact on Asian buyers, particularly China, is significant. With Saudi supplies to China potentially halved in May, as reported by TASS, the region's dependence on Gulf energy is being tested. The price surge that followed Aramco's price hikes may also strain refiners and consumers, potentially accelerating a search for alternative suppliers or a push toward energy diversification. TASS's framing, from a Russian perspective, places emphasis on the supply disruptions, which may also reflect broader geopolitical alignments in the region.

The Diplomatic Dimension

Amid the energy chaos, diplomatic efforts continue. TASS reported that Iran and the United States held several rounds of talks in Islamabad on April 11, but neither side announced an agreement. The prospect of a naval blockade of the Strait, as announced by President Trump on April 12, adds a new layer of tension. While the blockade's implications are not yet clear, any enforcement action could further complicate the already fragile energy supply chain. Dawn's analysis, however, suggests that the current measures by producers are providing only temporary relief, and the underlying political conflict remains unresolved.

Outlook

As of mid-April 2026, the energy landscape remains in flux. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already forced significant rerouting of crude and LNG, but the measures described in these reports are partial at best. Iraq's production collapse and Kuwait's export decline underscore the breadth of the disruption, while Qatar's reduced LNG capacity adds a further burden. Whether the new pipelines and route shifts can stabilize global energy markets depends in large part on the trajectory of the conflict — a variable that, as the failed talks in Islamabad suggest, remains highly uncertain.