Taiwan warns of China 'maneuvering' ahead of Trump-Xi summit

Lead

As US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare to meet in Beijing this week, Taiwan finds itself in an anxious spotlight. Taipei's security officials say they are closely monitoring the talks for any sign of a shift in US policy on the island, even as they publicly express confidence in the stability of Taiwan-US relations. Beijing, meanwhile, has sought to frame Taiwan as the foremost risk in its ties with Washington, and Taiwanese civilians are increasingly enrolling in self-defense courses, according to multiple reports.

Coverage Comparison

Taipei is bracing for the Trump-Xi summit, scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Beijing, with the issue of Taiwan all but certain to arise. Tsai Ming-yen, Director-General of Taiwan's National Security Bureau, said on Thursday that Beijing might attempt some "maneuvering" over the Taiwan issue during the talks, but he stressed that Washington has repeatedly affirmed, "through both public and private channels, that its Taiwan policy has not changed." The Jerusalem Post reported these remarks.

Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung echoed that confidence on Monday, saying that Taiwan is confident in the stable development of its ties with the US, but hopes there are no "surprises" on Taiwan-related issues during the summit. He noted that the US government has repeatedly stated that its Taiwan policy will not change, and that Taipei has maintained continuous communication with Washington through both public and non-public channels.

According to The Guardian, the summit follows a period in which Taiwan had been "cast as the anxious bystander." Observers had suggested Taipei feared that Trump's unpredictable and transactional approach might upend Washington's long-standing support for the island, which China claims as a breakaway province. However, the paper reported that Trump took an unusually muted approach during the first day of talks, sidestepping questions on Taiwan, and that a White House readout of the meeting omitted mention of the island. Taipei was "quietly pleased" at that outcome, according to William Yang, a senior analyst with the Crisis Group.

The South China Morning Post reported that Beijing enters the summit on stronger footing over Taiwan than during Trump's first term. A leading mainland analyst, identified as Wu, said in an interview that Beijing would welcome statements opposing independence, but he believed the space for independence was narrowing regardless. "China today is very different from the country that Trump encountered during his first term," Wu said.

The Hindu provided historical context, outlining key milestones in Taiwan's relationship with China and the US, from the 1949 civil war and the 1950 US fleet deployment in the Taiwan Strait, to the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances adopted in 1982.

Al Jazeera reported that Taiwanese civilians are flocking to self-defense courses amid fears that China could one day use force to seize the island. The report noted that some feel Taiwan's future could be discussed during the Trump-Xi meeting.

Key Claims

• Taiwan's Government expressed concern over China's press release on the Taiwan issue, stating that it "unilaterally made threatening remarks," as reported by The Hindu.
• China stressed that self-ruled Taiwan was "the biggest risk" in relations with the US, during a call between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to The Hindu.
• Wang Yi warned that the Taiwan issue is "the biggest point of risk" for China-US relations, as reported by The Hindu.
• The US has reaffirmed that its Taiwan policy has not changed, according to statements from Taiwanese officials reported by the Jerusalem Post and The Hindu.
• Xi Jinping took a firm tone on Taiwan independence, declaring that "Taiwan independence" and peace in the Taiwan Strait are "incompatible," as reported by The Guardian.
• Taiwan is confident in the stable development of its ties with the US, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said, according to the Jerusalem Post.
• China has continued its regular military activities around Taiwan, according to reports cited by the Jerusalem Post.

Perspectives

Taiwan's perspective: Taipei views the Trump-Xi summit with cautious optimism. Officials express confidence in the stability of US-Taiwan relations, citing repeated US assurances that its policy has not changed. However, they also hope for "no surprises" and closely monitor the talks for any potential shift in US policy. According to The Guardian, Taipei was quietly pleased with Trump's muted approach to Taiwan on the first day, despite the firm retort from Taiwan's foreign ministry that "The Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to one another."

China's perspective: Beijing approaches the talks from a position of strength, according to the South China Morning Post, with analysts arguing the space for Taiwan independence is narrowing. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has warned that the Taiwan issue is the biggest risk in US-China relations, and President Xi Jinping has taken a firm tone, declaring independence and peace incompatible. Beijing stresses that Taiwan concerns China's core interests and urges the US to "keep its promises and make the right choices."

The US perspective: Washington maintains that its Taiwan policy has not changed, as emphasized by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio said this week that Taiwan is likely to be a topic of conversation between the two leaders, but both countries understand it is in neither's interest to see destabilizing events regarding Taiwan. The US is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, and Rubio stressed the need for stability across the Taiwan Strait.