Suspected sabotage at Estonian defence firm fails to disrupt Ukraine deliveries

A suspected arson attack on a building used by Estonian defence contractor Milrem Robotics has not disrupted the company's deliveries of robotic military vehicles to Ukraine, its chief executive said on Wednesday. The incident, which occurred overnight on Aug 15 at a Tallinn site, is being investigated by Estonian authorities, with Prime Minister Kristen Michal saying possible Russian involvement is among the lines of inquiry.

"Nothing really disturbs our deliveries this year or next year," Milrem Chief Executive Kuldar Väärsi told Reuters. He added that the incident has not affected the company's production, supply chain or delivery schedules at a time when European governments are seeking to expand defence manufacturing and sustain military support for Ukraine.

Milrem is one of only two foreign suppliers with unmanned ground vehicle fleets in active service in Ukraine, according to Väärsi, and expects to have more than 200 robotic systems deployed in the country by the end of this year. Suspects have been identified, but investigators have not established responsibility.

Broader pattern of suspected hybrid operations

The Milrem arson attack fits into a broader pattern of suspected or confirmed sabotage against Ukraine's military supply chains across Nato territory, according to a report by Yahoo News New Zealand, citing Western intelligence sources. The report said the Kremlin is recruiting local gang members to sabotage defence manufacturers in a campaign designed to test Nato's resolve, with attacks carefully calculated to fall just short of triggering Article 5, Nato's mutual defence clause.

This week, Latvia detained three of its own nationals on suspicion of an arson attack against a drone manufacturer in neighbouring Estonia, the report said. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there has been a steady stream of unexplained attacks across Europe, it added.

Recent incidents across Europe

As well as the Estonian arson incident, explosions have occurred at major arms manufacturers in Italy and Bulgaria this month alone, the report said. On Aug 10, a major explosion ripped through a plant belonging to EMCO, one of Bulgaria's largest private arms manufacturers, which produces 155mm artillery ammunition for Ukraine. On Aug 13, a similar blast rocked a munitions factory operated by KNDS Ammo Italy in Colleferro, Rome.

Earlier this year, a fire virtually destroyed a Czech plant making drones and thermal optics for Ukraine, with four suspects detained as part of the investigation into Russian involvement. Lithuania also charged six people over an attempt to burn down a factory supplying radio-wave scanners to Kyiv. Italian and Bulgarian officials have played down possible Russian involvement in the incidents.

Intelligence assessments and official warnings

A Western intelligence assessment previously reported by The Telegraph said Russia's GRU military intelligence agency had turned to using criminal gangs, according to the Yahoo News report. Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia's state security service (VDD), said GRU officers don't travel to target countries but instead cultivate sources within criminal gangs using Telegram and pay recruits in cryptocurrency.

Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that Russia's sabotage attacks are "reckless and dangerous" and said Putin is preparing Russia to use force against Nato "within five years," the report said. A Nato official added that Russia has accelerated its destabilisation campaigns against Allies through cyber attacks, assassination attempts and acts of sabotage, and that Nato continues to boost resilience and apply tools to counter hybrid actions.

The Kremlin's attacks are seen as a deliberate ploy to sow discord among Nato allies, with eastern members more vocal in calling out Russia, while western members like Italy and Germany are less willing to attribute incidents to Moscow, according to the report. Many covert communications links between European diplomats and Moscow have dried up since Russia's invasion.

Russia has repeatedly denied Western allegations of sabotage and other hybrid activities in Europe, according to a Reuters report carried by The Straits Times.