Five months after the United States launched its war against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to international shipping, with Iran asserting sovereignty over the waterway and the United States unable to reverse the situation. The war, which began on 28 February with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, has seen Iran block the strait and attack vessels passing through without its clearance, according to reporting by The Nation Online.
The strait, through which a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies transited before the war, is now nearly empty of traffic. Ship traffic has fallen to about 13 transits a day on average, down nearly 90% from the pre-war average of 130 ships daily. This collapse in traffic has had a dramatic impact on global energy markets, with the International Energy Agency warning that global oil stockpiles are rapidly depleting, falling below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025. The IEA projects a global oil market deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026, with around 8.3 million barrels per day of Gulf oil production currently offline.
Competing claims over control
Washington and Tehran have traded claims over the status of the strait. In a Truth Social post, President Donald Trump said "the U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!" However, Iranian authorities dismissed the claim. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority said in a post on X that "claims and repeated posts by US officials that the Strait of Hormuz is no longer blocked do not change the reality: the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and will not be reopened until Iran's conditions are accepted."
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the US had "long miscalculated due to intelligence failures," adding "Case in point: The war on Iran. Now, an even bigger miscalculation on the Strait of Hormuz." Hossein Taeb, head of one of Iran's paramilitary outfits, said Washington sought to disrupt what he described as the Islamic Republic's management and control of the strait. Iran's joint military command headquarters said no vessel could transit without Tehran's permission.
Strategic impasse and failed diplomacy
The current impasse follows the collapse of an interim peace deal in June. Trump declared the deal 'over' at a NATO summit in Turkey. The war has also seen the US impose a naval blockade on Iranian shipping and ports.
Analysts say the situation on the ground is complex, with both sides claiming the upper hand. However, the on-the-ground reality is that Iran's strategy of asserting control over the strait has been effective, according to The Nation Online.
NATO navigates a delicate balance
As the standoff continues, NATO is treading cautiously. NATO's top commander convened a videoconference earlier this week to facilitate possible contributions to support freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, his spokesperson told Reuters. The meeting was not a NATO mission, the spokesperson clarified. "Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe hosted a meeting of interested Allies at the chief of defense level on Wednesday, 19 Aug 26, in order to facilitate their possible contributions to support freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," a spokesperson for the alliance's top commander, US Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, said.
"To be clear, this is not a NATO mission. But given NATO's unique strengths in its ability to bring together Allies and understand the capabilities they bring to bear, it makes sense for NATO to facilitate in this way," the spokesperson added. NATO allies have sought to avoid direct involvement in the Iran conflict, instead focusing on plans outside the alliance to reopen the strait, which before February carried about a fifth of all traded oil.
European-led coalition efforts
France and Britain have led efforts to build a coalition among roughly a dozen countries to guarantee safe passage through the strait once tensions ease or the conflict is resolved, though any long-term arrangement would ultimately require Iranian acquiescence. The coalition is seen as a way to provide security without direct NATO involvement.
Global economic fallout
While the strategic and military dimensions of the standoff dominate headlines, the economic consequences are being felt most acutely in countries far from the Gulf. In Nigeria, the war's impact on oil prices has been a major concern. The Dangote refinery has faced challenges in sourcing local crude, with Devakumar Edwin of the Dangote group saying domestic crude is expensive due to intermediary premiums. Analysts advise that countries must look inwards for relief from high oil prices.
Outlook
As the standoff shows no signs of resolution, the world is left to navigate a new normal in which the Strait of Hormuz, once a vital artery of global energy trade, remains a flashpoint. With talks to reopen the strait contingent on Iranian acquiescence, and NATO cautious about direct involvement, the possibility of a swift resolution appears remote. The onus is now on all parties to find a diplomatic path forward, even as they continue to assert their respective positions on the waterway and the war that has reshaped the region's geopolitics.