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The Strait of Hormuz is scheduled to reopen on Friday following a US-Iran agreement to end hostilities in the Gulf, but shipping and energy industry experts caution that a return to normal traffic levels will take weeks or longer due to mines, insurance concerns, and lingering caution among shipowners.

Coverage comparison

Multiple news organisations have reported on the deal, expected to be signed on June 19 in Switzerland, which would lift the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, allow Tehran to resume oil exports under limited sanctions relief, and extend a ceasefire for at least 60 days while broader talks on Iran's nuclear program are launched. The agreement was announced by US President Donald Trump on June 14, according to reports carried by Dawn, Deutsche Welle, and the Jerusalem Post.

Despite the political breakthrough, industry analysts and maritime security sources quoted across the coverage paint a complex picture of the practical obstacles that remain.

Key claims

  • The US administration is discussing measures to resume oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including the possibility of introducing paid transit for vessels protected by American ships, as reported by TASS — English, citing Politico.
  • Around 500 vessels, including 220 oil tankers, are awaiting safe passage in the Persian Gulf, according to analytics company Kpler, as cited by TASS — English. Dawn, citing the International Chamber of Shipping, reports that about 20,000 seafarers are stranded in Gulf waters.
  • Prior to the crisis, approximately 20% of global oil supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a figure cited by multiple sources including Dawn, Deutsche Welle, and TASS — English.
  • Iran has designated the central area of the Strait of Hormuz as a mine danger zone, according to reports carried by Dawn and the Jerusalem Post. Ensuring the waterway is safe from mines could delay a return to normal shipping traffic by 40 to 50 days, according to maritime security sources cited by the Jerusalem Post.
  • Shippers are cautious about resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with many awaiting more details on mine clearance and safety guarantees, as reported by the Jerusalem Post and Deutsche Welle.
  • The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has increased to an average of 12 to 15 vessels a day in recent weeks, but this is still a fraction of the 120 to 140 ships that passed through daily before the war, according to AFP, as cited by Dawn.

Perspectives

Shipping industry

Industry representatives and analysts quoted across multiple reports urge caution. Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the shipping association BIMCO, told Reuters (as carried by the Jerusalem Post and Deutsche Welle) that Hormuz transits remain "very risky" and that "mine-free routes need to be established." Greek maritime risk management agency MARISKS, cited by Deutsche Welle, described the framework agreement as "the beginning of a de-escalation process rather than the immediate restoration of normal trading conditions."

Energy markets

Global oil prices fell about 4% on Monday in response to the deal, according to reports carried by the Jerusalem Post. However, analysts quoted across coverage warn that the supply impact will depend on how quickly shipping actually resumes. Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, was quoted by the Jerusalem Post noting that the gap between the announcement and the signing date gives both sides scope for issuing conflicting statements.

Mine clearance

Ensuring the Strait is safe from mines could take 40 to 50 days, according to five Western maritime security sources cited by the Jerusalem Post. Iran has not commented on whether it deployed naval mines, but has threatened to do so, the same report noted. Jakob Larsen of BIMCO, speaking to the Jerusalem Post, said the threat of mines remains a concern "immediately as well as further down the line."