Market Preview: Negative Opening Expected

Indian equity benchmarks are likely to open lower on Tuesday, 1 September, as GIFT Nifty futures traded at a discount, signalling a weak start. Around 6:35 AM, the Gift Nifty was trading near 24,207, a discount of nearly 44 points to the previous close of Nifty futures, as reported by Livemint. The domestic benchmarks ended lower in the previous session, with the Nifty 50 settling at 24,080, down 0.39%, and the Sensex losing 0.40% to close at 76,957.

Global Cues and Geopolitical Tensions

The negative sentiment stems from fresh escalations between the US and Iran. According to Livemint, the two nations launched strikes against each other for the first time in about a month, with US forces hitting an island in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian forces attacking the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. In a separate report, the same outlet noted that Tehran launched missiles and drones in retaliation for a fresh wave of US strikes.

US President Donald Trump criticised Iran on Truth Social, writing, "Iran is officially a Failed Nation. IT IS DEAD!" He also claimed that Iran faces severe economic, military and political turmoil.

These tensions pushed oil prices higher. Brent crude futures jumped nearly 1% to trade above $91 per barrel, as per one Livemint report, while another noted Brent rising over 1% to trade near $96 per barrel. A third report from the same publication indicated that Brent extended gains to $95.34 a barrel after the US launched airstrikes. In the previous session, Brent had jumped nearly 3% and WTI rose by almost 3%, reaching multi-week highs.

Wall Street ended lower overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 419 points, or 0.79%, to 52,766.93; the S&P 500 dropped 55 points, or 0.71%, to 7,631.47; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 271 points, or 1.03%, to 26,099.77, according to both Business Today and Livemint reports. A separate Livemint article offered slightly different figures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reporting losses of 25.62 points and 31.53 points respectively, though the direction was consistent.

Asian markets also felt the heat. Japan's Nikkei and Korea's Kospi crashed up to 3% amid rising global bond yields and higher oil prices, as reported by Livemint and Business Today.

Bond Yields and Currency Movements

Rising oil prices have driven global bond yields higher, reviving inflation concerns. The US 10-year bond yield jumped to 4.81%, a multi-year high, while Japan's 10-year yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996, and UK Gilts rose to 5.23%, their highest since June 2008, as reported by Livemint.

The US dollar index held near two-week highs at 99.67, according to a Business Today report. Gold was flat at $4,328.59 an ounce, and bitcoin slipped 0.2% to $77,246.57.

Technical Outlook for Indian Benchmarks

Analysts offered mixed views on key levels. According to Business Today, Nifty support is placed at 24,000, with a potential downside to 23,800. Ajit Mishra, SVP-Research at Religare Broking, told Livemint that the index is trying to defend 24,000 on a closing basis, but the overall trend remains weak. "We recommend continuing with 'sell on rise' in the Nifty," he said, citing resistance at 24,150–24,250.

Nandish Shah from HDFC Securities, as per Livemint, suggested that 24,200–24,250 is strong resistance, with support at 23,823–23,890. A sustained close below 24,000 could drag the index toward that support band.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, told Business Today and Livemint that the crucial lower area of 24,000 continues to offer support. "As long as this support holds, there is a chance of a further near-term bounce," he said, adding that the underlying trend remains down. "Weakness from here could drag Nifty down to the next lower support of 23,800," he noted.

Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities, as quoted by Livemint, said that if the index trades above 24,000, a quick technical pullback could occur, with a possible bounce toward 24,200–24,300. Below 24,000, selling pressure may accelerate, pulling the index to 23,850–23,800.

On the Sensex, Business Today reported that it faces resistance at higher levels, with a crucial support zone at 76,400–76,600. A sustained move above 77,300–77,500 could improve the short-term structure.

India VIX remained subdued near 11.49, indicating contained volatility expectations, according to Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, as cited by Business Today.

Bank Nifty and FII/DII Flows

Bank Nifty is in a consolidation range between 56,500 and 58,700, as per Bajaj Broking, quoted by Business Today. Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities told Business Today that the 57,900–58,000 zone is immediate resistance, while 57,000–56,900 is important support.

Provisional data from NSE, as reported by Business Today, showed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of ₹1,143.38 crore on Tuesday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of ₹1,846.94 crore.

Stock Recommendations

Three market experts provided eight buy-or-sell stock recommendations for intraday trading on Tuesday, as reported by Livemint. Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking recommended buying Welspun Living (target ₹212, stop loss ₹191) and IPCA Laboratories (target ₹2,127, stop loss ₹1,918). Ganesh Dongre of Anand Rathi suggested buying TCS (target ₹2,430), Eternal (target ₹342), and ONGC (target ₹242). Shiju Koothupalakkal of Prabhudas Lilladher recommended Himadri Speciality Chemical (target ₹725) and Garuda Construction and Engineering (target ₹190).

The experts' views are for educational purposes only and not investment advice, as noted in the reports.

Outlook

The market is expected to remain volatile amid rising global bond yields, higher oil prices, and dimming prospects for a quick resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Analysts suggest a cautious approach, with strict risk management.


This article is based on reports from Business Today and Livemint. Stock recommendations are solely those of the named analysts and do not constitute investment