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UFC Fight Night 285: Spivac vs. Petrino — Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Serghei Spivac and Vitor Petrino meet in a three-round heavyweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night 285 in Sacramento. The Arizona Republic previews the matchup, analyzes key stats, and offers betting picks, with Spivac as a slight underdog.

By Tertius News AI Desk 1 distinct · 1 masthead · 1 article Version 1 Coverage Aug 22, 2026 Published Aug 22

UFC Fight Night 285: Spivac vs. Petrino Preview

Serghei Spivac and Vitor Petrino are set to collide in a three-round heavyweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night 285, held Saturday at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. The prelims begin at 5 m. ET, with the main card following at 8 m. ET, all streaming on Paramount+.

Spivac, known as "The Polar Bear," enters with an 18-6-0 record, while Petrino holds a 14-2-0 mark. Their recent form tells contrasting stories: Spivac snapped a two-bout losing streak with a unanimous decision victory over Ante Delija on Feb. 21, yet he remains 2-3 in his last five fights, including a second-round KO/TKO loss to Ciryl Gane on Sept 2, 2023. Petrino, meanwhile, earned a unanimous decision win over Steven Asplund on March 14, and has now won three consecutive fights, with prior victories over Thomas Petersen (third-round KO/TKO) and Austen Lane (first-round submission).

Statistical Edge and Odds

Arizona Republic's preview highlights several statistical advantages for Spivac. At 31 years old, he holds a slight half-inch reach edge over Petrino. He also lands more significant strikes per minute 57 to 24) and with better accuracy 79% to 61%). Spivac's takedown game is superior: he averages 82 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Petrino's 60, and his takedown accuracy is 26% compared to 15%. Petrino does counter with a higher submission average: 72 per fight to Spivac's 48.

According to BetMGM Sportsbook (lines updated at 12:15 m. ET), the betting line for the fight result is Spivac +120 and Petrino -145. The over/under for total rounds is set at 5, with Over at -105 and Under at -130. The odds for the fight going the distance are Yes +125 and No -170.

Picks and Predictions

The Arizona Republic's betting analysis favors Spivac, suggesting his experience and statistical edges make him worth a "roll of the dice" as a short underdog at +120. The publication also recommends the Over 5 rounds as a strong play, noting both fighters went the distance in their most recent fights. A small play on Spivac by decision is also proposed, with Spivac's notable past victories over Derrick Lewis, Marcin Tybura, and Augusto Sakai cited as evidence of his competitive pedigree.

As the main card gets set in Sacramento, fans and bettors will see whether Spivac can defy oddsmakers, or whether Petrino extends his winning streak to four.

How this outlet told it

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The Arizona Republic

Framing: The headline ('UFC Fight Night 285 odds, picks and predictions') frames the piece as betting-oriented; no news angle is offered.

as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC

Facts Included:

3-round heavyweight bout on the main card
Fighters: Serghei Spivac and Vitor Petrino
Event: UFC Fight Night 285 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
Prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET; main card starts 8 p.m. ET; all on Paramount+
Records: Spivac (18-6-0), Petrino (14-2-0)
Spivac defeated Ante Delija by unanimous decision Feb. 21, snapping a 2-bout skid
Spivac is 2-3 in past 5 fights, including Round 2 KO/TKO loss to Ciryl Gane Sept. 2, 2023
Petrino earned unanimous-decision win over Steven Asplund March 14
Petrino has 3 consecutive victories, including wins over Thomas Petersen (Round 3 KO) and Austen Lane (Round 1 submission)
Spivac has a half-inch reach advantage; Spivac averages 3.57 significant strikes per minute vs Petrino's 3.24; Spivac 59.79% strike accuracy vs 53.61%; Spivac 3.82 takedowns per 15 min vs 2.60; Spivac 59.26% takedown accuracy vs 46.15%; Petrino higher submission average 0.72 vs 0.48
Betting lines: Spivac +120, Petrino -145; Over/Under 2.5 rounds (Over -105, Under -130); fight to go the distance Yes +125 / No -170
Picks: SPIVAC (+120) worth a roll of the dice as short dogs; OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-105) strong play; SPIVAC BY DECISION (+350) small play
Spivac's notable victories: Derrick Lewis, Marcin Tybura, Augusto Sakai
Both fighters' last outings went the distance

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What was claimed, and who backed it

AI-extracted; can misattribute a claim — see Methodology.

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status is Contested when two claims on this page negate each other; otherwise it counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimSerghei Spivac and Vitor Petrino are scheduled to meet in a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card at UFC Fight Night 285 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California, on Saturday.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimThe prelims for UFC Fight Night 285 begin at 5 p.m. ET, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET, all on Paramount+.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimSerghei Spivac holds a record of 18-6-0 and Vitor Petrino holds a record of 14-2-0 in MMA.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimSerghei Spivac defeated Ante Delija by unanimous decision on Feb. 21, snapping a two-bout losing streak.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimSpivac is 2-3 in his past 5 fights, including a Round 2 KO/TKO loss to Ciryl Gane on Sept. 2, 2023.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimVitor Petrino earned a unanimous-decision win over Steven Asplund on March 14.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimPetrino has 3 consecutive victories, including wins over Thomas Petersen (Round 3 KO/TKO) and Austen Lane (Round 1 submission).	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimSpivac is 31 years old and has a half-inch reach advantage over Petrino.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimSpivac averages 3.57 significant strikes per minute, compared to 3.24 for Petrino.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimSpivac has 59.79% significant strike accuracy, while Petrino has 53.61%.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimSpivac averages 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Petrino averages 2.60.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimSpivac has 59.26% takedown accuracy, while Petrino has 46.15%.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimPetrino has a higher submission average than Spivac, 0.72 to 0.48.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimThe betting line for the fight result is Spivac +120 and Petrino -145.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimThe over/under for total rounds is 2.5, with Over at -105 and Under at -130.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimThe odds for the fight going the distance are Yes +125 and No -170.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimSpivac has notable victories over Derrick Lewis, Marcin Tybura, and Augusto Sakai.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
ClaimBoth Spivac and Petrino went the distance in their most recent fights.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via The Arizona Republic as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC, Asbury Park Press as of Aug 22, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

1 distinct · 1 masthead · 1 article consulted: The Arizona Republic 18 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-22