South Sudan: Elections Minus Safeguards Could Fuel Renewed Atrocities, Warns UN Commission

UN Commission Warns South Sudan Elections Without Safeguards Could Fuel Atrocity Crimes

The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has warned that the country's first national elections since independence, scheduled for December, could reignite conflict and heighten the risk of atrocity crimes if held without essential safeguards.

The commission stressed that "multiple risk factors for atrocity crimes are converging" and that the window to prevent a return to the scale of atrocities South Sudan endured between 2013 and 2018 is closing, though not completely shut, as reported by UN News and AllAfrica.

"Fifteen years after independence, South Sudan is at one of its most dangerous points," the commission said, according to UN News and Daily Sabah. It cautioned that "rushing to elections" without essential safeguards risks deepening existing conflicts and increasing the risk of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and ethnic cleansing.

Renewed Armed Conflict and Ceasefire Violations

The warning comes amid the resumption of armed conflict in several parts of the country. According to UN News and AllAfrica, clashes and civilian deaths have been recorded in Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Unity states, as well as in Western and Central Equatoria. A total of 407 ceasefire violations were recorded from August 2025 to January 2026.

Jurist.org reported that in March 2025, fighting erupted between government forces and the "White Army," a youth militia, in Nasir, Upper Nile. The government is reported to have bombed a populated area, resulting in burned civilians in Nasir, Longechuk, and Ulang counties. The violence spread to Jonglei State, and by March 2026, over 100,000 people had fled across the border to Ethiopia.

The commission documented conflict-related violations, sexual violence, and the recruitment and use of children in hostilities in various locations, including Western Equatoria, Unity State, Nasir, and Jonglei, according to Jurist.org. The violence has been attributed in part to concerns over the use of oil revenue by political and military elites, leading to malnutrition and exclusion from education and healthcare.

Unimplemented Peace Deal and Dismantled Safeguards

In 2018, South Sudan's warring parties committed to the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). According to UN News and AllAfrica, almost half of its key provisions have not been implemented, including the unification of the country's security forces.

The commission cited the resumption of armed conflict, the abandonment of inclusive politics, weakened civic space and constitutional safeguards, largely absent accountability mechanisms, and significant sections of the population excluded from meaningful political participation as chief problems, as reported by AllAfrica and UN News.

The commission noted that mitigating mechanisms, such as ceasefire monitoring, independent justice, and inclusive political dialogue, have been weakened or suspended. Inclusive politics are "being abandoned" in Juba, civic space and constitutional safeguards are weakened, and accountability mechanisms are largely absent, according to UN News and AllAfrica.

Jurist.org reported that in July 2026, President Salva Kiir signed a bill to remove pre-election requirements outlined in the R-ARCSS. The assessments in 2022, 2024, and 2026 have revealed that the peace agreement's goals remain unimplemented.

Election Risks and Democratic Consolidation

The commission cautioned that elections held without a strategy for democratic consolidation and preventing national schisms could fuel renewed conflict and heighten the risk of atrocity crimes, as reported by AllAfrica and Daily Sabah. Elections risk "reinforcing, rather than resolving, the underlying drivers of conflict," the commission said, according to Daily Sabah.

Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission, said South Sudanese have waited 15 years to cast their first ballots as citizens of an independent state. "They have the right to choose their government through free, peaceful and democratic elections," she said, as quoted by AllAfrica. "They deserve an election that gives them a voice, not one that puts their lives at risk."

Sooka explained that a peaceful democracy cannot be built on a foundation of armed conflict, fear, and exclusion, and that the very safeguards designed to prevent a return to war are being dismantled as the country moves towards the polls, according to AllAfrica.

The commission's concern is not whether elections should be held, but whether citizens can exercise their right to vote freely, safely, without fear, and in a manner that consolidates democratic transformation, as stated in AllAfrica's coverage.

Context: Conflict, Delays, and Aid Cuts

South Sudan gained independence on July 9, 2011, after splitting from Sudan. Following independence, President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar fought a civil war from 2013 to 2018 that claimed an estimated 400,000 lives, according to Daily Sabah. The power-sharing agreement that ended the war has all but collapsed, with Machar and several of his allies jailed last year, as reported by Daily Sabah.

The elections have been delayed twice, in 2022 and 2024, as the country struggled to establish institutions amid rampant corruption and insecurity, according to Daily Sabah.

The country also faces aid cuts by Western donors, with the UN warning earlier this month that it may have to end food assistance to refugees within weeks, as reported by Daily Sabah.

The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan is an independent body created by and reporting to the UN Human Rights Council. Established in March 2016, the commission has been renewed annually. Its commissioners include Yasmin Sooka, Barney Afako, and Carlos Castresana Fernández, who serve as senior experts and are not UN staff members, according to UN News and AllAfrica.